Le semestre d\u2019hiver 2020\/2021 a \u00e9t\u00e9 marqu\u00e9 par la deuxi\u00e8me vague de coronavirus. La reprise de l\u2019\u00e9conomie domestique a \u00e9t\u00e9 interrompue. Le PIB s\u2019est contract\u00e9 de 0,5\u00a0% au premier trimestre 2021. L\u2019\u00e9volution nettement positive de l\u2019industrie a permis d\u2019\u00e9viter un effondrement plus brutal.<\/p>\n
Le groupe d\u2019experts revoit \u00e0 la hausse (+3,6\u00a0%) pour 2021 sa pr\u00e9vision du PIB (corrig\u00e9 des \u00e9v\u00e9nements sportifs). D\u00e9but mars, l\u2019assouplissement des mesures de politique sanitaire a permis une reprise rapide de l\u2019\u00e9conomie domestique. Le commerce ext\u00e9rieur suisse est soutenu par l\u2019am\u00e9lioration de la situation \u00e9conomique mondiale. En 2022, l\u2019\u00e9conomie suisse devrait continuer de cro\u00eetre \u00e0 un rythme nettement sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 la moyenne.<\/p>\n
De nouvelles vagues d\u2019infection et les mesures sanitaires qui en d\u00e9coulent ont sensiblement frein\u00e9 le rythme d\u2019expansion de l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale au 1er\u00a0trimestre. Le secteur des services a de nouveau \u00e9t\u00e9 particuli\u00e8rement touch\u00e9. En revanche, le secteur industriel a pu se d\u00e9velopper vigoureusement. Dans l\u2019ensemble, les perspectives de l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale sont un peu plus favorables que pr\u00e9vu.<\/p>\n
Des simulations bas\u00e9es sur des mod\u00e8les ainsi qu\u2019une analyse sectorielle sugg\u00e8rent que la majeure partie de la chute du PIB au cours du premier semestre 2020 a \u00e9t\u00e9 g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9e par l\u2019\u00e9volution de l\u2019\u00e9conomie domestique. Bien que la baisse de la demande \u00e9trang\u00e8re y ait \u00e9galement contribu\u00e9, le canal du commerce ext\u00e9rieur a jou\u00e9 un r\u00f4le secondaire ne repr\u00e9sentant qu\u2019environ un tiers du total.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Situation de l\u2019\u00e9conomie suisse Le semestre d\u2019hiver 2020\/2021 a \u00e9t\u00e9 marqu\u00e9 par la deuxi\u00e8me vague de coronavirus. La reprise de l\u2019\u00e9conomie domestique a \u00e9t\u00e9 interrompue. Le PIB s\u2019est contract\u00e9 de 0,5\u00a0% au premier trimestre 2021. L\u2019\u00e9volution nettement positive de l\u2019industrie a permis d\u2019\u00e9viter un effondrement plus brutal. Pr\u00e9visions pour la Suisse Le groupe d\u2019experts revoit […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":4193,"featured_media":204540,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"post__type":[82],"post_opinion":[],"post_serie":[88],"post_content_category":[90],"post_content_subject":[],"acf":{"seco_author":4193,"seco_co_author":"","author_override":"","seco_author_post_ocupation_year":"","seco_author_post_occupation_de":"","seco_author_post_occupation_fr":"","seco_co_authors_post_ocupation":null,"short_title":"Tendances conjoncturelles, \u00e9t\u00e9 2021","post_lead":"","post_hero_image_description":"","post_hero_image_description_copyright_de":"","post_hero_image_description_copyright_fr":"","post_references_literature":"","post_kasten":[{"kasten_title":"","kasten_box":""}],"post_notes_for_print":"","first_teaser_header_de":"Exkurs","first_teaser_header_fr":"Encadr\u00e9","first_teaser_text_de":"Bedeutung der Auslandnachfrage f\u00fcr den Schweizer BIP-Verlust im ersten Halbjahr 2020","first_teaser_text_fr":"Incidence de la demande \u00e9trang\u00e8re sur la perte de PIB suisse au 1er semestre 2020","second_teaser_header_de":"","second_teaser_header_fr":"","second_teaser_text_de":"","second_teaser_text_fr":"","kseason_de":"Sommer 2021","kseason_fr":"\u00e9t\u00e9 2021","post_in_pdf":165417,"main_focus":"","serie_email":null,"frontpage_slider_bild":"","artikel_bild-slider":null,"legacy_id":"104851","post_abstract":"","magazine_issue":null,"seco_author_reccomended_post":"","redaktoren":"","korrektor":"","planned_publication_date":"2021-06-15 07:48:37","original_files":null,"external_release_for_author":"19700101","external_release_for_author_time":"00:00:00","link_for_external_authors":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/exedit\/60c8575cacda1"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/129899"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4193"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=129899"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/129899\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":165421,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/129899\/revisions\/165421"}],"acf:user":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4193"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/204540"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=129899"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post__type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post__type?post=129899"},{"taxonomy":"post_opinion","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_opinion?post=129899"},{"taxonomy":"post_serie","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_serie?post=129899"},{"taxonomy":"post_content_category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_content_category?post=129899"},{"taxonomy":"post_content_subject","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_content_subject?post=129899"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}