{"id":131855,"date":"2020-09-18T07:46:44","date_gmt":"2020-09-18T07:46:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/2020\/09\/frangulidis-10-2020fr\/"},"modified":"2023-08-23T23:57:53","modified_gmt":"2023-08-23T21:57:53","slug":"frangulidis-10-2020fr","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/2020\/09\/frangulidis-10-2020fr\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u2019endettement des entreprises se trouve \u00e0 un niveau inqui\u00e9tant"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>L\u2019endettement public a fortement augment\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle mondiale depuis l\u2019\u00e9clatement de la crise financi\u00e8re de\u00a02007\u20132008. La Suisse se trouve dans une situation relativement confortable gr\u00e2ce sa politique financi\u00e8re raisonnable et \u00e0 son statut traditionnel d\u2019\u00ab\u00a0\u00eelot de taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat\u00a0\u00bb. Cette remarque ne vaut toutefois que pour l\u2019endettement public\u00a0: le pays fait nettement moins bonne figure dans le secteur priv\u00e9.&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nLe syst\u00e8me fiscal helv\u00e9tique, en particulier la r\u00e8gle de la valeur locative, a cr\u00e9\u00e9 depuis des dizaines d\u2019ann\u00e9es une incitation \u00e0 un endettement hypoth\u00e9caire et, par cons\u00e9quent, \u00e0 un endettement des m\u00e9nages relativement \u00e9lev\u00e9. La nouveaut\u00e9 r\u00e9side dans la forte augmentation des dettes contract\u00e9es par les entreprises, abstraction faite du secteur financier, pas pris en compte en raison de son r\u00f4le d\u2019interm\u00e9diaire. En Suisse, la dette du secteur priv\u00e9 totalise plus de 250\u00a0% du produit int\u00e9rieur brut. Il s\u2019agit d\u2019un taux tr\u00e8s \u00e9lev\u00e9 en comparaison internationale\u00a0: seule la Su\u00e8de enregistre une valeur plus importante (voir <em>illustration<\/em>\u00a0<em>1<\/em>).&#13;<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"text__graphic-title\">Ill. 1. Endettements public et priv\u00e9 en pourcentage du PIB (fin 2019)<\/h3>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<div class=\"chart chart--normal\" id=\"frangulidis_fr\"><\/div>\n<script>\n$(function () {\n    $('#frangulidis_fr').highcharts({ \nchart: {\n    type: 'column'\n  },\n  title: {\n    text: ''\n  },\n  xAxis: {\n    categories: ['Russie', 'Argentine', 'Mexique', 'Pologne', 'Inde', 'Br\u00e9sil', 'Allemagne', 'Cor\u00e9e du Sud', 'Australie', 'Espagne', 'Italie', '\u00c9tats-Unis', 'Chine', 'Grande-Bretagne', 'Gr\u00e8ce', 'Su\u00e8de', '<b>Suisse<\/b>','Canada',\n'France','Japon',]\n  },\n  yAxis: {\n    min: 0,\n    title: {\n      text: ''\n    },\n     labels: {\n                format: '{value}%'\n            },\n    stackLabels: {\n      enabled: false,\n      style: {\n        fontWeight: 'bold',\n        color: ( \/\/ theme\n          Highcharts.defaultOptions.title.style &&\n          Highcharts.defaultOptions.title.style.color\n        ) || 'gray'\n      }\n    }\n  },\n\n  tooltip: {\n    headerFormat: '<b>{point.x}<\/b><br\/>',\n    pointFormat: '{series.name}: {point.y}<br\/>Total : {point.stackTotal}%',\n    valueSuffix: '%'\n  },\n  plotOptions: {\n    column: {\n      stacking: 'normal',\n      dataLabels: {\n        enabled: false\n      }\n    }\n  },\n  series: [{\n    name: 'Dette publique',\n    data: [10.0,\n      72.7,\n      53.7,\n      42.8,\n      66.8,\n      91.6,\n      60.0,\n      40.0,\n      39.8,\n      96.6,\n      136.0,\n      108.3,\n      54.2,\n      85.2,\n      177.8,\n      35.8,\n      40.7,\n      95.5,\n      99.8,\n      224.7\n    ]\n  }, {\n    name: 'Dette priv\u00e9e',\n    data: [64.1,\n16.6,\n40.8,\n76.2,\n54.5,\n71.1,\n112.8,\n186.8,\n189.5,\n147.9,\n109.3,\n147.0,\n207.4,\n160.6,\n108.2,\n253.7,\n253.0,\n212.4,\n213.4,\n164.3]\n\n  }]\n});\n});\n<\/script>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n<span class=\"text__quelle--ground\">Source\u00a0: Pictet Asset Management, Datastream \/ La Vie \u00e9conomique<\/span>&#13;<\/p>\n<h2>La dette des entreprises priv\u00e9es est stable<\/h2>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\nDans les 21\u00a0principales \u00e9conomies d\u00e9velopp\u00e9es, la dette des entreprises atteint aujourd\u2019hui en moyenne 91\u00a0% du produit int\u00e9rieur brut (PIB). Proportionnellement, l\u2019endettement des entreprises se situe donc \u00e0 un niveau similaire \u00e0 celui d\u2019il y a dix ans. Contrairement \u00e0 ce qui pr\u00e9valait durant les deux d\u00e9cennies pr\u00e9c\u00e9dant la crise financi\u00e8re de 2007\u20132008, la plupart des entreprises \u00e9tatsuniennes et europ\u00e9ennes ont depuis lors fait preuve de retenue dans la prise de cr\u00e9dits, notamment parce qu\u2019elles estimaient insuffisantes les perspectives de croissance sur leur march\u00e9 domestique. La crise de l\u2019euro a affect\u00e9 n\u00e9gativement la demande et l\u2019offre de cr\u00e9dits aux entreprises, particuli\u00e8rement sur le Vieux Continent. De nombreuses banques de la zone euro se sont montr\u00e9es soucieuses d\u2019am\u00e9liorer la qualit\u00e9 de leurs bilans depuis la crise financi\u00e8re et ont par cons\u00e9quent men\u00e9 une politique de cr\u00e9dit restrictive.&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nContrairement aux entreprises occidentales, les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s chinoises ont vu leurs dettes augmenter massivement au cours de la derni\u00e8re d\u00e9cennie pour atteindre d\u00e9sormais 144\u00a0% du PIB. Cette \u00e9volution n\u2019est pas une bonne nouvelle dans la mesure o\u00f9 la Chine joue un r\u00f4le de plus en plus important dans l\u2019\u00e9volution conjoncturelle des pays \u00e9mergents et du reste du monde.&#13;<\/p>\n<h2>La Suisse se d\u00e9marque<\/h2>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\nContrairement \u00e0 la tendance observ\u00e9e dans les autres pays industrialis\u00e9s, la dette des entreprises et des m\u00e9nages a \u00e9galement augment\u00e9 en Suisse depuis la crise financi\u00e8re (voir <em>illustration\u00a02<\/em>). Cette \u00e9volution est \u00e9troitement li\u00e9e \u00e0 une forte progression des emprunts. L\u2019\u00e9cart de cr\u00e9dit (qui indique dans quelle mesure le rapport actuel de l\u2019octroi de cr\u00e9dit au produit int\u00e9rieur brut s\u2019\u00e9loigne de la tendance \u00e0 long terme) en est un indicateur\u00a0: en Suisse, cet \u00e9cart a nettement augment\u00e9 ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es dans le secteur priv\u00e9, notamment au niveau des entreprises, ce qui refl\u00e8te une acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration de la prise de cr\u00e9dits par les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s helv\u00e9tiques.&#13;<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"text__graphic-title\">Ill. 2. \u00c9volution de l\u2019endettement des secteurs public et priv\u00e9 en Suisse (2000\u20132019)<\/h3>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<div class=\"chart chart--normal\" id=\"frangulidis_2_fr\"><\/div>\n<script>\n$(function () {\n    $('#frangulidis_2_fr').highcharts({  \nchart: {\n    type: 'spline'\n  },\n  title: {\n    text: ''\n  },\n\n  xAxis: {\n    type: 'datetime',\n    title: {\n      text: ''\n    }\n  },\n  yAxis: [{ \/\/ Primary yAxis\n    labels: 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     ]\n    }, \n\n  ]\n});\n});\n<\/script>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n<span class=\"text__quelle--ground\">Source\u00a0: Pictet Asset Management, Datastream, \u00e9tat \u00e0 fin\u00a02019 \/ La Vie \u00e9conomique<\/span>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nCette \u00e9volution, de prime abord \u00e9tonnante, s\u2019explique dans une large mesure par l\u2019\u00e9volution des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat en Suisse. En effet, l\u2019endettement des entreprises a gagn\u00e9 en dynamisme apr\u00e8s l\u2019introduction des taux n\u00e9gatifs par la Banque nationale suisse en\u00a02015. Des projets d\u2019investissement jug\u00e9s auparavant trop peu rentables sont devenus plus int\u00e9ressants en raison des co\u00fbts de financement moins \u00e9lev\u00e9s. Il est en outre devenu plus attractif pour les entreprises cot\u00e9es en bourse de racheter une part de leurs actions n\u00e9goci\u00e9es en bourse en levant des fonds sur le march\u00e9 des capitaux.&#13;<\/p>\n<h2>Le coronavirus accro\u00eet les risques<\/h2>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\nL\u2019augmentation du financement externe des entreprises est supportable tant que la croissance qui en r\u00e9sulte d\u00e9passe durablement le co\u00fbt de financement des dettes existantes. Cela semble avoir \u00e9t\u00e9 le cas ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es en raison de l\u2019orientation constamment baissi\u00e8re des taux d\u2019&#8217;int\u00e9r\u00eat. Mais la crise \u00e9conomique actuelle li\u00e9e \u00e0 la Covid-19 montre que les perspectives de croissance peuvent se d\u00e9t\u00e9riorer rapidement. En outre, une normalisation des taux d\u2019inflation \u00e0 un tr\u00e8s bas niveau ces prochaines ann\u00e9es pourrait mettre un terme \u00e0 la structure baissi\u00e8re des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat en Suisse.&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nIl est donc recommandable de ne pas n\u00e9gliger les risques \u00e0 long terme inh\u00e9rents \u00e0 l\u2019endettement croissant des entreprises, tant pour ces derni\u00e8res que pour les investisseurs. En ce qui concerne la Suisse, il faut \u00eatre conscient qu\u2019un endettement public croissant et qu\u2019une forte augmentation des dettes des entreprises constituent un risque pour les perspectives de prosp\u00e9rit\u00e9 \u00e0 long terme.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>L\u2019endettement public a fortement augment\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle mondiale depuis l\u2019\u00e9clatement de la crise financi\u00e8re de\u00a02007\u20132008. La Suisse se trouve dans une situation relativement confortable gr\u00e2ce sa politique financi\u00e8re raisonnable et \u00e0 son statut traditionnel d\u2019\u00ab\u00a0\u00eelot de taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat\u00a0\u00bb. Cette remarque ne vaut toutefois que pour l\u2019endettement public\u00a0: le pays fait nettement moins bonne figure dans [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5075,"featured_media":101217,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"post__type":[81,83],"post_opinion":[],"post_serie":[],"post_content_category":[229],"post_content_subject":[],"acf":{"seco_author":5075,"seco_co_author":null,"author_override":"","seco_author_post_ocupation_year":"","seco_author_post_occupation_de":"Leiter Multi Asset und Chefstratege, Pictet Asset Management, Z\u00fcrich","seco_author_post_occupation_fr":"Responsable du secteur Multi-actifs et strat\u00e9giste en chef, Pictet Asset Management, Zurich","seco_co_authors_post_ocupation":null,"short_title":"L\u2019endettement des entreprises \u00e0 un niveau inqui\u00e9tant","post_lead":"Contrairement \u00e0 la plupart des pays industrialis\u00e9s, la Suisse a enregistr\u00e9 une forte augmentation de l\u2019endettement des entreprises ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es. Le danger est limit\u00e9 tant que les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat demeurent bas. Mais personne n\u2019avait pr\u00e9vu le coronavirus.","post_hero_image_description":"Faire la f\u00eate, mais sous des conditions strictes : jeu de lumi\u00e8res au MAD \u00e0 Lausanne, d\u00e9but juin.","post_hero_image_description_copyright_de":"Keystone","post_hero_image_description_copyright_fr":"Keystone","post_references_literature":"","post_kasten":null,"post_notes_for_print":"","first_teaser_header_de":"","first_teaser_header_fr":"","first_teaser_text_de":"","first_teaser_text_fr":"","second_teaser_header_de":"","second_teaser_header_fr":"","second_teaser_text_de":"","second_teaser_text_fr":"","kseason_de":"","kseason_fr":"","post_in_pdf":131858,"main_focus":[155967,156782],"serie_email":null,"frontpage_slider_bild":131862,"artikel_bild-slider":null,"legacy_id":"97549","post_abstract":"La p\u00e9joration des finances publiques depuis l\u2019\u00e9clatement de la crise financi\u00e8re de\u00a02007\u20132008 est le principal th\u00e8me de discussion sur l\u2019\u00e9volution de la situation de la dette. Gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 sa politique financi\u00e8re raisonnable, la Suisse se trouve \u00e0 cet \u00e9gard dans une position confortable. C\u2019est moins le cas dans l\u2019\u00e9conomie priv\u00e9e. En raison d\u2019une forte augmentation de l\u2019endettement des entreprises, la dette du secteur priv\u00e9 suisse atteint plus de 250\u00a0% du produit int\u00e9rieur brut. Cette valeur \u00e9lev\u00e9e en comparaison internationale sugg\u00e8re que le th\u00e8me de la dette rev\u00eat \u00e9galement de l\u2019importance en Suisse.","magazine_issue":"20201001","seco_author_reccomended_post":null,"redaktoren":[4127,0],"korrektor":4139,"planned_publication_date":"20200922","original_files":null,"external_release_for_author":"20200904","external_release_for_author_time":"19:00:00","link_for_external_authors":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/exedit\/5f3247ea4422a"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/131855"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5075"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=131855"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/131855\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":187599,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/131855\/revisions\/187599"}],"acf:user":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4139"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/0"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4127"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5075"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/main_focus_post\/156782"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/main_focus_post\/155967"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/101217"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=131855"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post__type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post__type?post=131855"},{"taxonomy":"post_opinion","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_opinion?post=131855"},{"taxonomy":"post_serie","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_serie?post=131855"},{"taxonomy":"post_content_category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_content_category?post=131855"},{"taxonomy":"post_content_subject","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_content_subject?post=131855"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}