{"id":133106,"date":"2020-03-23T10:30:19","date_gmt":"2020-03-23T10:30:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/2020\/03\/pochon-04-2020fr\/"},"modified":"2023-08-24T00:00:54","modified_gmt":"2023-08-23T22:00:54","slug":"pochon-04-2020fr","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/2020\/03\/pochon-04-2020fr\/","title":{"rendered":"Le commerce entre la Suisse et le Royaume-Uni se porte bien"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Le 23\u00a0juin\u00a02016, les Britanniques se pronon\u00e7aient en faveur d\u2019une sortie du Royaume-Uni de l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne (UE). Si cette d\u00e9cision a engendr\u00e9 beaucoup d\u2019incertitudes, les \u00e9changes commerciaux entre la Suisse et le Royaume-Uni ont jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent bien r\u00e9sist\u00e9 dans leur ensemble. Le Royaume-Uni est d\u2019ailleurs l\u2019un des plus importants partenaires de la Suisse\u00a0: il figurait au troisi\u00e8me rang en\u00a02018 derri\u00e8re l\u2019Allemagne et les \u00c9tats-Unis, avec un volume d\u2019\u00e9changes commerciaux global de plus de 56\u00a0milliards de francs (y compris les services et les objets de valeur), soit 21\u00a0milliards d\u2019exportations depuis la Suisse et 35\u00a0milliards d\u2019importations depuis le Royaume-Uni.&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nLe commerce entre les deux pays se distingue notamment par l\u2019importance des services\u00a0: sur les trois premiers trimestres de\u00a02019, le Royaume-Uni \u00e9tait l\u2019un des seuls partenaires de la Suisse pour lequel le commerce de services d\u00e9passait le commerce de marchandises (hors objets de valeurs). Cette situation s\u2019explique notamment par le fait que le Royaume-Uni s\u2019est depuis longtemps sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9 dans certains services, notamment financiers ou de conseil aux entreprises. Il n\u2019est d\u00e8s lors pas \u00e9tonnant qu\u2019il soit le troisi\u00e8me partenaire commercial de la Suisse dans ce secteur derri\u00e8re les \u00c9tats-Unis et l\u2019Allemagne, avec un volume d\u2019\u00e9changes total (exportations + importations) de 19,5\u00a0milliards de francs en\u00a02018.&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nLes droits de licences repr\u00e9sentaient 17\u00a0% des exportations suisses de services au Royaume-Uni sur les trois premiers trimestres\u00a02019, suivis des services financiers (16\u00a0%) et des services de t\u00e9l\u00e9communications, informatiques et d\u2019information (TCI, 14\u00a0%). Du c\u00f4t\u00e9 des importations, les principaux services \u00e9taient li\u00e9s aux conseils en gestion (26\u00a0%), aux TCI (19\u00a0%) et au tourisme (14\u00a0%). Alors que les importantes importations en recherche et d\u00e9veloppement et en TCI ont engendr\u00e9 un d\u00e9ficit de la balance des services entre\u00a02012 et\u00a02017, un exc\u00e9dent est enregistr\u00e9 depuis le d\u00e9but\u00a02018 gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 la forte croissance des exportations en droits de licences depuis fin\u00a02016.&#13;<\/p>\n<h2>Les objets de valeur dominent<\/h2>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\nLe Royaume-Uni est par ailleurs le principal partenaire de la Suisse en ce qui concerne le commerce d\u2019objets de valeur<a href=\"#footnote_1\" id=\"footnote-anchor_1\" class=\"inline-footnote__anchor\">[1]<\/a>\u00a0: le volume d\u2019\u00e9changes total (exportations + importations) a atteint 25,9\u00a0milliards de francs sur l\u2019ensemble de l\u2019ann\u00e9e\u00a02019. Cette relation a deux origines\u00a0: premi\u00e8rement, les deux pays poss\u00e8dent des places financi\u00e8res fortes entre lesquelles les \u00e9changes d\u2019objets de valeur (lingots d\u2019or, etc.) peuvent \u00eatre tr\u00e8s importants\u00a0; deuxi\u00e8mement, une grande partie de l\u2019or au niveau mondial est achemin\u00e9e vers plusieurs raffineries en Suisse dans le but d\u2019y \u00eatre transform\u00e9e puis r\u00e9export\u00e9e, notamment vers la Chine et l\u2019Inde. Une part importante de cet or provient \u00e9galement du Royaume-Uni, qui h\u00e9berge les principales bourses d\u2019\u00e9change de m\u00e9taux pr\u00e9cieux.&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nLe commerce d\u2019objets de valeur fluctue cependant fortement d\u2019une ann\u00e9e \u00e0 l\u2019autre et engendre une grande volatilit\u00e9 dans le total du commerce de marchandises, notamment avec le Royaume-Uni\u00a0: la part des objets de valeur au commerce suisse de marchandises \u00e9tait ainsi de 67\u00a0% pour les exportations et de 43\u00a0% pour les importations en\u00a02019, contre respectivement 15\u00a0% et 70\u00a0% en\u00a02018.&#13;<\/p>\n<h2>Volte-face dans la pharma<\/h2>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\nHors objets de valeur, les produits chimiques et pharmaceutiques constituent le principal secteur d\u2019exportation de marchandises vers le Royaume-Uni\u00a0: ils repr\u00e9sentaient plus de 3\u00a0milliards de francs sur l\u2019ensemble de l\u2019ann\u00e9e\u00a02019. Ils sont suivis par les machines, les m\u00e9taux et autres instruments de pr\u00e9cision (2\u00a0milliards) issus de l\u2019industrie MEM et par l\u2019horlogerie (1,4\u00a0milliard). Une approximation des exportations r\u00e9elles de marchandises vers le Royaume-Uni ventil\u00e9es par produits (voir <em>encadr\u00e9<\/em>) montre que le commerce total de marchandises a b\u00e9n\u00e9fici\u00e9 du dynamisme de la chimie-pharma ces 20\u00a0derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es\u00a0: les exportations de ce secteur ont plus que doubl\u00e9 entre d\u00e9but\u00a02013 et mi-2016, avant de reculer \u00e0 nouveau (voir <em>illustration\u00a01<\/em>). L\u2019industrie MEM a en revanche progressivement recul\u00e9, alors que la part de l\u2019horlogerie est pass\u00e9e de 6\u00a0% \u00e0 pr\u00e8s de 15\u00a0% entre\u00a02009 et\u00a02019, refl\u00e9tant ainsi l\u2019avantage comparatif des exportations suisses dans ce secteur.&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nUne forte correction des exportations de produits pharmaceutiques a toutefois eu lieu en\u00a02017 et\u00a02018. Ce revirement surprenant pourrait refl\u00e9ter un changement strat\u00e9gique de la part d\u2019une ou de plusieurs entreprises durant cette p\u00e9riode, sans que cette d\u00e9cision ait n\u00e9cessairement un lien direct avec le vote de\u00a02016 en faveur du Brexit. \u00c0 ce jour, seul un effet d\u2019anticipation au premier trimestre\u00a02019 est av\u00e9r\u00e9 et visible dans la majorit\u00e9 des rubriques \u2013\u00a0tant \u00e0 l\u2019exportation qu\u2019\u00e0 l\u2019importation\u00a0: de nombreuses entreprises ont alors augment\u00e9 leurs stocks en pr\u00e9vision de la sortie du Royaume-Uni de l\u2019UE, initialement pr\u00e9vue pour le 29\u00a0mars\u00a02019.&#13;<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"text__graphic-title\">Ill. 1. Exportations suisses de marchandises vers le Royaume-Uni (s\u00e9ries r\u00e9elles d\u00e9saisonnalis\u00e9es, 2000\u20132019)<\/h3>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<div class='chart chart--normal' id='pochon_4_2020fr'>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<script>\n$(function () {\n    $('#pochon_4_2020fr').highcharts({\n\n     chart: {\n        type: 'spline'\n    },\n    title: {\n        text: ''\n    },\n   \n   xAxis: {\n        type: 'datetime',\n         title: {\n            text: ''\n        }\n    },\n    yAxis: [{ \/\/ Primary yAxis\n        labels: {\n            format: '{value}',\n           \n        },\n        title: {\n      \n            text: 'Exportations suisses (en milliards de francs)',\n           \n        },\n    }, ],\n   \n    plotOptions: {\n        spline: {\n            marker: {\n                enabled: false\n            }\n        }\n    },\n    tooltip: {\n           \n                       valueSuffix: ' milliard(s) de francs',\n\n\n            valueDecimals: 2,\n        },\n   \n   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       ],\n        \n    }]\n});\n});\n\n\n\n<\/script>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n<span class=\"text__legend\">Remarque\u00a0: la part de la chimie-pharma \u00e0 l\u2019ensemble des exportations de marchandises vers le Royaume-Uni s\u2019est \u00e9lev\u00e9e \u00e0 33\u00a0% en\u00a02019 (en termes nominaux). Suivent l\u2019industrie MEM (22\u00a0%) et l\u2019horlogerie (15\u00a0%).<\/span>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n<span class=\"text__quelle--ground\">Source\u00a0: Seco \/ La Vie \u00e9conomique<\/span>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nDans le sens inverse, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire au niveau des importations en provenance du Royaume-Uni, les produits chimiques et pharmaceutiques ont repr\u00e9sent\u00e9 5,2\u00a0milliards de francs sur l\u2019ensemble de\u00a02019 et se retrouvent \u00e9galement en t\u00eate (voir <em>illustration\u00a02<\/em>). Les biens issus de l\u2019industrie MEM (1,2\u00a0milliard) ont vu leur poids s\u2019\u00e9roder au fil du temps, passant de 43\u00a0% en\u00a01988 \u00e0 12\u00a0% en\u00a02019. La rubrique des v\u00e9hicules (voitures, trains, avions, etc.) conna\u00eet pour sa part une tendance l\u00e9g\u00e8rement baissi\u00e8re depuis\u00a02012.&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nLa d\u00e9connexion entre les importations et les exportations de produits de la chimie-pharma depuis la mi-2016 est marquante. Dop\u00e9es par les mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res et les mati\u00e8res de base organiques, les importations de produits chimiques et pharmaceutiques ont plus que doubl\u00e9 entre mi-2016 et mi-2019. Comme cette \u00e9volution ne concerne probablement qu\u2019un nombre tr\u00e8s restreint de produits et d\u2019entreprises, elle ne doit pas \u00eatre interpr\u00e9t\u00e9e comme une tendance de fond.&#13;<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"text__graphic-title\">Ill. 2. Importations suisses de marchandises en provenance du Royaume-Uni (s\u00e9ries r\u00e9elles d\u00e9saisonnalis\u00e9es, 2000\u20132019)<\/h3>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<div class='chart chart--normal' id='pochon_4_2_2020fr'>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<script>\n$(function () {\n    $('#pochon_4_2_2020fr').highcharts({\n\n    chart: {\n        type: 'spline'\n    },\n    title: {\n        text: ''\n    },\n   \n   xAxis: {\n        type: 'datetime',\n         title: {\n            text: ''\n        }\n    },\n    yAxis: [{ \/\/ Primary yAxis\n        labels: {\n            format: '{value}',\n           \n        },\n        title: {\n      \n            text: 'Importations suisses (en milliards de francs)',\n           \n        },\n    }, ],\n   \n    plotOptions: {\n        spline: {\n            marker: {\n                enabled: false\n            }\n        }\n    },\n    tooltip: {\n           \n                       valueSuffix: ' milliard(s) de francs',\n\n\n            valueDecimals: 2,\n        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       ],\n         \n    },\n    {\n         name: 'Industrie MEM (quote-part 2019 : 12 %)',\n        data: [\n         [Date.UTC(\t2000\t\t,1\t),\t0.505801855\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2000\t\t,3\t),\t0.493993349\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2000\t\t,6\t),\t0.507923558\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2000\t\t,9\t),\t0.531438996\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2001\t\t,1\t),\t0.496778053\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2001\t\t,3\t),\t0.461937593\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2001\t\t,6\t),\t0.403316234\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2001\t\t,9\t),\t0.391056311\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2002\t\t,1\t),\t0.372902341\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2002\t\t,3\t),\t0.357860842\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2002\t\t,6\t),\t0.360694982\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2002\t\t,9\t),\t0.34516052\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2003\t\t,1\t),\t0.323498001\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2003\t\t,3\t),\t0.323689816\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2003\t\t,6\t),\t0.330151524\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2003\t\t,9\t),\t0.347840301\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2004\t\t,1\t),\t0.327807584\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2004\t\t,3\t),\t0.325419402\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2004\t\t,6\t),\t0.309965179\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2004\t\t,9\t),\t0.290432228\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2005\t\t,1\t),\t0.326565066\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2005\t\t,3\t),\t0.443156326\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2005\t\t,6\t),\t0.558575282\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2005\t\t,9\t),\t0.4666481\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2006\t\t,1\t),\t0.423505939\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2006\t\t,3\t),\t0.326219534\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2006\t\t,6\t),\t0.325784918\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2006\t\t,9\t),\t0.308173339\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2007\t\t,1\t),\t0.333958658\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2007\t\t,3\t),\t0.342827631\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2007\t\t,6\t),\t0.328821893\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2007\t\t,9\t),\t0.307367252\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2008\t\t,1\t),\t0.297372314\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2008\t\t,3\t),\t0.318739949\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2008\t\t,6\t),\t0.310943064\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2008\t\t,9\t),\t0.29807569\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2009\t\t,1\t),\t0.318060621\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2009\t\t,3\t),\t0.289610025\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2009\t\t,6\t),\t0.254416481\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2009\t\t,9\t),\t0.260366967\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2010\t\t,1\t),\t0.277157577\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2010\t\t,3\t),\t0.296773999\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2010\t\t,6\t),\t0.280377332\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2010\t\t,9\t),\t0.294847884\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2011\t\t,1\t),\t0.289102357\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2011\t\t,3\t),\t0.266751528\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2011\t\t,6\t),\t0.255879359\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2011\t\t,9\t),\t0.262542276\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2012\t\t,1\t),\t0.251763384\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2012\t\t,3\t),\t0.245209341\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2012\t\t,6\t),\t0.278345835\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2012\t\t,9\t),\t0.264486097\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2013\t\t,1\t),\t0.254750677\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2013\t\t,3\t),\t0.261421157\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2013\t\t,6\t),\t0.256297162\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2013\t\t,9\t),\t0.2559103\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2014\t\t,1\t),\t0.264502219\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2014\t\t,3\t),\t0.269089934\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2014\t\t,6\t),\t0.270915932\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2014\t\t,9\t),\t0.286481603\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2015\t\t,1\t),\t0.284507964\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2015\t\t,3\t),\t0.280709886\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2015\t\t,6\t),\t0.317347471\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2015\t\t,9\t),\t0.320570521\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2016\t\t,1\t),\t0.29257588\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2016\t\t,3\t),\t0.273312783\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2016\t\t,6\t),\t0.259946441\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2016\t\t,9\t),\t0.259398494\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2017\t\t,1\t),\t0.278125074\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2017\t\t,3\t),\t0.281407703\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2017\t\t,6\t),\t0.297785817\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2017\t\t,9\t),\t0.293804925\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2018\t\t,1\t),\t0.300523617\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2018\t\t,3\t),\t0.315120581\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2018\t\t,6\t),\t0.305659221\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2018\t\t,9\t),\t0.290335048\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2019\t\t,1\t),\t0.287251026\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2019\t\t,3\t),\t0.296303672\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2019\t\t,6\t),\t0.293898287\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2019\t\t,9\t),\t0.286554672\t],\n        ],\n         \n    },\n    {\n         name: 'Autres (quote-part 2019 : 21 %)',\n        data: [\n       [Date.UTC(\t2000\t\t,1\t),\t0.546479488\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2000\t\t,3\t),\t0.500445703\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2000\t\t,6\t),\t0.479480697\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2000\t\t,9\t),\t0.511268087\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2001\t\t,1\t),\t0.475742813\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2001\t\t,3\t),\t0.472647498\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2001\t\t,6\t),\t0.424808457\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2001\t\t,9\t),\t0.48759954\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2002\t\t,1\t),\t0.428509839\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2002\t\t,3\t),\t0.424921624\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2002\t\t,6\t),\t0.459795656\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2002\t\t,9\t),\t0.430534432\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2003\t\t,1\t),\t0.39077908\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2003\t\t,3\t),\t0.425732106\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2003\t\t,6\t),\t0.394980456\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2003\t\t,9\t),\t0.353722914\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2004\t\t,1\t),\t0.431935237\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2004\t\t,3\t),\t0.378794895\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2004\t\t,6\t),\t0.391092893\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2004\t\t,9\t),\t0.332711568\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2005\t\t,1\t),\t0.352052647\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2005\t\t,3\t),\t0.539628063\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2005\t\t,6\t),\t0.50409476\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2005\t\t,9\t),\t0.565104013\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2006\t\t,1\t),\t0.524069237\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2006\t\t,3\t),\t0.422631915\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2006\t\t,6\t),\t0.451589947\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2006\t\t,9\t),\t0.420284502\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2007\t\t,1\t),\t0.469707694\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2007\t\t,3\t),\t0.633537959\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2007\t\t,6\t),\t0.453584072\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2007\t\t,9\t),\t0.387249499\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2008\t\t,1\t),\t0.436183562\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2008\t\t,3\t),\t0.41275455\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2008\t\t,6\t),\t0.382206239\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2008\t\t,9\t),\t0.341203103\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2009\t\t,1\t),\t0.288977119\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2009\t\t,3\t),\t0.314786537\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2009\t\t,6\t),\t0.332030621\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2009\t\t,9\t),\t0.377696322\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2010\t\t,1\t),\t0.418855157\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2010\t\t,3\t),\t0.390970587\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2010\t\t,6\t),\t0.436807972\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2010\t\t,9\t),\t0.509729866\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2011\t\t,1\t),\t0.545927884\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2011\t\t,3\t),\t0.367914238\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2011\t\t,6\t),\t0.371215738\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2011\t\t,9\t),\t0.38466632\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2012\t\t,1\t),\t0.507679761\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2012\t\t,3\t),\t0.494145773\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2012\t\t,6\t),\t0.528342912\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2012\t\t,9\t),\t0.54659711\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2013\t\t,1\t),\t0.467539961\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2013\t\t,3\t),\t0.496789061\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2013\t\t,6\t),\t0.503009998\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2013\t\t,9\t),\t0.442600731\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2014\t\t,1\t),\t0.500574691\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2014\t\t,3\t),\t0.516320442\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2014\t\t,6\t),\t0.459629609\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2014\t\t,9\t),\t0.52350286\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2015\t\t,1\t),\t0.520034901\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2015\t\t,3\t),\t0.521355223\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2015\t\t,6\t),\t0.513034543\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2015\t\t,9\t),\t0.566149442\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2016\t\t,1\t),\t0.51754767\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2016\t\t,3\t),\t0.5253534\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2016\t\t,6\t),\t0.473810711\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2016\t\t,9\t),\t0.507369052\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2017\t\t,1\t),\t0.413521543\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2017\t\t,3\t),\t0.404608677\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2017\t\t,6\t),\t0.44342033\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2017\t\t,9\t),\t0.422899792\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2018\t\t,1\t),\t0.417920719\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2018\t\t,3\t),\t0.477105715\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2018\t\t,6\t),\t0.499459881\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2018\t\t,9\t),\t0.477460879\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2019\t\t,1\t),\t0.594506378\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2019\t\t,3\t),\t0.451388102\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2019\t\t,6\t),\t0.44648963\t],\n[Date.UTC(\t2019\t\t,9\t),\t0.415782708\t],\n        ],\n        \n    }]\n});\n});\n\n\n\n<\/script>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n<span class=\"text__legend\">Remarque\u00a0: 55\u00a0% des importations de marchandises en provenance du Royaume-Uni concernaient la chimie-pharma (en termes nominaux), devant les v\u00e9hicules et l\u2019industrie MEM (12\u00a0% chacun).<\/span>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n<span class=\"text__quelle--ground\">Source\u00a0: Seco \/ La Vie \u00e9conomique<\/span>&#13;<\/p>\n<h2>Le PIB britannique d\u00e9cisif pour les exportations<\/h2>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\nLa d\u00e9composition du commerce de marchandises par groupe de produits a mis en lumi\u00e8re des diff\u00e9rences importantes au niveau des facteurs susceptibles d\u2019influencer l\u2019\u00e9volution des \u00e9changes. Si l\u2019on exclut le commerce d\u2019objets de valeur et des produits chimiques et pharmaceutiques (qui r\u00e9agissent beaucoup moins que les autres \u00e0 la conjoncture et au taux de change), il est alors possible de mod\u00e9liser les exportations suisses vers le Royaume-Uni \u00e0 l\u2019aide d\u2019un simple mod\u00e8le de correction d\u2019erreur<a href=\"#footnote_2\" id=\"footnote-anchor_2\" class=\"inline-footnote__anchor\">[2]<\/a>. Ce mod\u00e8le permet notamment de faire la distinction entre le long et le court terme dans un contexte de coint\u00e9gration. Toutes les variables sont exprim\u00e9es en termes r\u00e9els\u00a0: ainsi, l\u2019important diff\u00e9rentiel d\u2019inflation entre la Suisse et le Royaume-Uni ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es est par exemple pris en compte. Le mod\u00e8le est \u00e9galement estim\u00e9 pour l\u2019Allemagne, les \u00c9tats-Unis, la France et au niveau mondial afin de comparer les diff\u00e9rentes \u00e9lasticit\u00e9s des exportations helv\u00e9tiques (voir <em>illustration\u00a03<\/em>).&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n\u00c0 court terme, les exportations vers le Royaume-Uni pr\u00e9sentent des \u00e9lasticit\u00e9s tr\u00e8s similaires \u00e0 celles obtenues pour les autres partenaires commerciaux de la Suisse\u00a0: la demande \u00e9trang\u00e8re a une influence bien plus forte que le taux de change, ce qui peut refl\u00e9ter le fait que les entreprises attendent g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement un certain temps avant d\u2019ajuster leurs prix. Sur le long terme, en revanche, le taux de change joue un r\u00f4le beaucoup moins important pour le Royaume-Uni que pour les autres partenaires\u00a0: alors qu\u2019une augmentation de 1\u00a0% du taux de change engendre une r\u00e9duction des exportations suisses d\u2019au minimum 0,6\u00a0% vers les autres partenaires, le recul n\u2019est que de 0,2\u00a0% pour le Royaume-Uni<a href=\"#footnote_3\" id=\"footnote-anchor_3\" class=\"inline-footnote__anchor\">[3]<\/a>.&#13;<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"text__graphic-title\">Ill. 3. \u00c9lasticit\u00e9s des exportations suisses par rapport \u00e0 la demande \u00e9trang\u00e8re et au taux de change (1<sup>er<\/sup>\u00a0trimestre\u00a01988\u20133<sup>e<\/sup>\u00a0trimestre\u00a02019)<\/h3>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<div class='chart chart--normal' id='pochon_4_3_2020fr'>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<script>\n$(function () {\n    $('#pochon_4_3_2020fr').highcharts({\n\n   chart: {\n            type: 'scatter', \/\/ macht Punkte statt bubbles\n            plotBorderWidth: 1,\n            zoomType: 'xy'\n        },\n\t\t\tcredits: {enabled: false}, \/\/ so wird die Quelle Highcharts.com ausgeblendet\n        legend: {\n            enabled: true\n        },\n\n        title: {\n            text: ''\n        },\n   \n\n        xAxis: {\n            gridLineWidth: 1,\n            title: {\n                text: 'Demande \u00e9trang\u00e8re'\n            },\n            labels: {\n                format: '{value}'\n            },\n          \n        },\n\n        yAxis: {\n            startOnTick: false,\n            endOnTick: false,\n            title: {\n                text: 'Taux de change r\u00e9el'\n            },\n            labels: {\n                format: '{value}'\n            },\n            \n          maxPadding: 0.2,\n                 },\n\n        tooltip: {\n            useHTML: true,\n           headerFormat: '<b>{series.name}<\/b>', \n            pointFormat: '<tr><h3>{point.country}<\/h3><\/tr>' +\n                '<tr>Demande \u00e9trang\u00e8re : <\/th><td>{point.x}<\/td><\/tr><br>'  +\n                '<tr><th>Taux de change r\u00e9el : <\/th><td>{point.y}<\/td><\/tr>',\n           \n            followPointer: true\n        },\n\n        plotOptions: {\n            series: {\n                dataLabels: {\n                    enabled: true,\n                    format: '{point.name}'\n                }\n            }\n        },\n\n        series: [{name: '\u00c9lasticit\u00e9 \u00e0 long terme des exportations suisses',\n            data: [\n              { x:\t1.1,\ty:\t-0.6\t,z:\t 0, \tname: 'Monde',\t\tcountry: 'Monde' },\n{ x:\t1.1\t,y: \t-0.2\t,z: \t0, \tname: 'Royaume-Uni', \t\tcountry: 'Royaume-Uni' },\n{ x: \t1.7,\ty:\t-0.7,\tz: \t0, \tname: 'Allemagne', \t\tcountry: 'Allemagne' },\n{ x: \t1.5\t,y: \t-0.6,\tz:\t 0, \tname: '\u00c9tats-Unis', \t\tcountry: '\u00c9tats-Unis' },\n{ x: \t1.5,\ty: \t-0.7\t,z: \t0, \tname: 'France', \t\tcountry: 'France' },\n\n\n            ]\n        },\n        {name: '\u00c9lasticit\u00e9 \u00e0 court terme des exportations suisses',\n            data: [\n                { x:\t3.2\t,y:\t-0.3,\tz:\t 0, \tname: 'Monde',\t\tcountry: 'Monde' },\n{ x:\t2.3\t,y: \t-0.3\t,z: \t0, \tname: 'Royaume-Uni', \t\tcountry: 'Royaume-Uni' },\n{ x: \t2.6\t,y:\t-0.2\t,z: \t0, \tname: 'Allemagne', \t\tcountry: 'Allemagne' },\n{ x: \t3.1\t,y: \t-0.5,\tz:\t 0, \tname: '\u00c9tats-Unis', \t\tcountry: '\u00c9tats-Unis' },\n{ x: \t2.2\t,y: \t-0.3,\tz: \t0, \tname: 'France', \t\tcountry: 'France' },\n\n\n            ]\n        }]\n\n});\n});\n\n\n\n<\/script>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n<span class=\"text__legend\">Remarque\u00a0: le graphique ne prend pas en compte les objets de valeur et les produits pharmaco-chimiques. La demande se base sur le produit int\u00e9rieur brut (PIB) r\u00e9el du partenaire (Royaume-Uni, \u00c9tats-Unis, Allemagne, France) ou sur le PIB r\u00e9el pond\u00e9r\u00e9 des principaux partenaires commerciaux de la Suisse (monde). Le taux de change r\u00e9el (publi\u00e9 par la Banque nationale suisse et bas\u00e9 sur l\u2019indice des prix \u00e0 la production) est issu du cours r\u00e9el bilat\u00e9ral (Royaume-Uni, \u00c9tats-Unis, Allemagne, France) ou de l\u2019indice r\u00e9el global (monde).<\/span>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n<span class=\"text__quelle--ground\">Source\u00a0: Seco \/ La Vie \u00e9conomique<\/span>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nVue sous cet angle, la relative solidit\u00e9 de l\u2019\u00e9conomie du Royaume-Uni \u2013\u00a0dont la croissance n\u2019\u00e9tait que l\u00e9g\u00e8rement inf\u00e9rieure \u00e0 la moyenne depuis le vote en faveur du Brexit\u00a0\u2013 explique pourquoi les exportations suisses de marchandises (hors objets de valeurs et produits chimiques et pharmaceutiques) sont rest\u00e9es plut\u00f4t stables sur cette p\u00e9riode. La balance est d\u2019ailleurs rest\u00e9e nettement exc\u00e9dentaire pour ces biens\u00a0: la valeur des exportations a d\u00e9pass\u00e9 celle des importations de pr\u00e8s de 2\u00a0milliards de francs en\u00a02019.&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nBien entendu, l\u2019\u00e9volution future du commerce bilat\u00e9ral va d\u00e9pendre de nombreux autres facteurs. L\u2019\u00e9volution de secteurs comme la chimie-pharma, la nature des relations bilat\u00e9rales entre le Royaume-Uni et l\u2019UE durant et apr\u00e8s la p\u00e9riode transitoire qui court au moins jusqu\u2019\u00e0 fin\u00a02020, la r\u00e9action des \u00e9conomies europ\u00e9ennes au Brexit et le succ\u00e8s de la strat\u00e9gie \u00ab\u00a0Mind the Gap\u00a0\u00bb adopt\u00e9e par le Conseil f\u00e9d\u00e9ral seront \u00e9galement d\u00e9terminants.<\/p>\n<ol class=\"footnote\"><li id=\"footnote_1\" class=\"footnote--item\">Voir \u00e9galement l\u2019encadr\u00e9 \u00ab\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.seco.admin.ch\/seco\/fr\/home\/Publikationen_Dienstleistungen\/Publikationen_und_Formulare\/konjunktur\/spezialthema\/exkurs_wichtigste_handelspartner.html\">Les principaux partenaires commerciaux de la Suisse<\/a>\u00a0\u00bb des Tendances conjoncturelles Hiver 2019\u20132020 du Seco. Les donn\u00e9es concernant le commerce de marchandises sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 disponibles pour l\u2019ensemble de l\u2019ann\u00e9e\u00a02019.&nbsp;<a href=\"#footnote-anchor_1\" class=\"inline-footnote__anchor hidden-print\">[<span class=\"icon-arrow-up\"><\/span>]<\/a><\/li><li id=\"footnote_2\" class=\"footnote--item\">Pour d\u2019autres applications de ce mod\u00e8le aux exportations suisses, voir Indergand et Mahlstein (2012) et Hanslin Grossmann et al. (2016).&nbsp;<a href=\"#footnote-anchor_2\" class=\"inline-footnote__anchor hidden-print\">[<span class=\"icon-arrow-up\"><\/span>]<\/a><\/li><li id=\"footnote_3\" class=\"footnote--item\">Les \u00e9lasticit\u00e9s estim\u00e9es peuvent varier quelque peu suivant la sp\u00e9cification du mod\u00e8le et le choix de l\u2019horizon temporel (ici\u00a0: 1er\u00a0trimestre\u00a01988\u20133e\u00a0trimestre\u00a02019).&nbsp;<a href=\"#footnote-anchor_3\" class=\"inline-footnote__anchor hidden-print\">[<span class=\"icon-arrow-up\"><\/span>]<\/a><\/li><\/ol>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le 23\u00a0juin\u00a02016, les Britanniques se pronon\u00e7aient en faveur d\u2019une sortie du Royaume-Uni de l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne (UE). Si cette d\u00e9cision a engendr\u00e9 beaucoup d\u2019incertitudes, les \u00e9changes commerciaux entre la Suisse et le Royaume-Uni ont jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent bien r\u00e9sist\u00e9 dans leur ensemble. Le Royaume-Uni est d\u2019ailleurs l\u2019un des plus importants partenaires de la Suisse\u00a0: il figurait au [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":4190,"featured_media":12519,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"post__type":[81,83],"post_opinion":[],"post_serie":[],"post_content_category":[106],"post_content_subject":[],"acf":{"seco_author":4190,"seco_co_author":null,"author_override":"","seco_author_post_ocupation_year":"","seco_author_post_occupation_de":"Dr. rer. pol., wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter, Ressort Konjunktur, Staatssekretariat f\u00fcr Wirtschaft (Seco), Bern","seco_author_post_occupation_fr":"Collaborateur scientifique, secteur Conjoncture, Secr\u00e9tariat d\u2019\u00c9tat \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9conomie (Seco), Berne","seco_co_authors_post_ocupation":null,"short_title":"Le commerce entre la Suisse et le Royaume-Uni se porte bien","post_lead":"La d\u00e9cision du Royaume-Uni de quitter l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne n\u2019a pas p\u00e9jor\u00e9 ses relations commerciales avec la Suisse. Les exportations suisses d\u00e9pendent davantage de la croissance \u00e9conomique britannique que du taux de change livre-franc.","post_hero_image_description":"Le Royaume-Uni est le principal partenaire commercial de la Suisse en ce qui concerne le commerce d\u2019objets de valeur, comme l\u2019or.","post_hero_image_description_copyright_de":"Keystone","post_hero_image_description_copyright_fr":"Keystone","post_references_literature":"<ul>&#13;\n \t<li>Hanslin Grossmann Sarah, Lein Sarah et Schmidt Caroline (2016). \u00ab\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/doi\/full\/10.1080\/00036846.2016.1181828\">Exchange rate and foreign GDP elasticities of Swiss exports across sectors and destination countries<\/a>\u00bb. <em>Applied Economics<\/em>, 48:57.<\/li>&#13;\n \t<li>Indergand Ronald et Mahlstein Kornel (2012). \u00ab\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/2012\/01\/indergand-4\/\">Les exportations suisses face au franc fort<\/a>\u00bb. <em>La Vie \u00e9conomique<\/em>, 1\/2\u20132012.<\/li>&#13;\n \t<li>OFS \u2013\u00a0Office f\u00e9d\u00e9ral de la statistique (2015). <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bfs.admin.ch\/bfs\/fr\/home\/statistiques\/economie-nationale\/comptes-nationaux\/produit-interieur-brut.assetdetail.328585.html\"><em>Inventaires des m\u00e9thodes d'estimation du PIB et du RNB de la Suisse<\/em><\/a>.<\/li>&#13;\n \t<li>Yoruzo et al. (2017). \u00ab\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.boj.or.jp\/en\/research\/brp\/ron_2017\/ron170420a.htm\/\">Real exports and real imports\u00a0: Methodology and tips for analysis<\/a>\u00bb. <em>Bank of Japan Reports and Research Papers<\/em>, avril\u00a02017.<\/li>&#13;\n<\/ul>","post_kasten":[{"kasten_title":"Flux r\u00e9els de marchandises par partenaire commercial","kasten_box":"Il n\u2019existe pas de donn\u00e9es r\u00e9elles pour le commerce ext\u00e9rieur de la Suisse par partenaire commercial. L\u2019interpr\u00e9tation des flux commerciaux se base donc uniquement sur les flux nominaux. Ce proc\u00e9d\u00e9 peut mener \u00e0 des erreurs d\u2019interpr\u00e9tation, par exemple en faisant une lecture conjoncturelle de simples variations de prix. Afin de combler cette lacune, le commerce de marchandises par pays a \u00e9t\u00e9 corrig\u00e9 des variations de prix au niveau des principaux groupes de produits, conform\u00e9ment \u00e0 la m\u00e9thode utilis\u00e9e dans les comptes nationaux<sup>a<\/sup>. Comme les indices de prix au niveau des groupes de produits ne sont pas disponibles par partenaire commercial, le m\u00eame indice global est utilis\u00e9 pour chaque pays\u00a0: il est en effet probable que les prix de nombreux biens \u00e9chang\u00e9s \u00e9voluent de mani\u00e8re similaire entre les diff\u00e9rents pays\u00a0; en outre, l\u2019approche d\u00e9sagr\u00e9g\u00e9e aboutit, en pond\u00e9rant les diff\u00e9rents groupes de produits, \u00e0 une \u00e9volution des prix totaux \u00e0 l\u2019exportation et \u00e0 l\u2019importation diff\u00e9rente pour chaque partenaire commercial.&#13;\n&#13;\n&nbsp;&#13;\n&#13;\n<span class=\"text__quelle--kasten\"><sup>a<\/sup> Voir OFS (2015) pour la d\u00e9flation des exportations suisses et Yoruzo et al. (2017) pour l\u2019application aux diff\u00e9rents partenaires commerciaux.<\/span>"}],"post_notes_for_print":"","first_teaser_header_de":"","first_teaser_header_fr":"","first_teaser_text_de":"","first_teaser_text_fr":"","second_teaser_header_de":"","second_teaser_header_fr":"","second_teaser_text_de":"","second_teaser_text_fr":"","kseason_de":"","kseason_fr":"","post_in_pdf":133109,"main_focus":[156023,156822],"serie_email":null,"frontpage_slider_bild":133113,"artikel_bild-slider":null,"legacy_id":"93019","post_abstract":"Malgr\u00e9 toutes les incertitudes engendr\u00e9es par la d\u00e9cision du Royaume-Uni de quitter l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne, le commerce entre la Suisse et le Royaume-Uni se porte bien. Ce pays est depuis longtemps le troisi\u00e8me partenaire commercial de la Suisse dans le secteur des services. En outre, le commerce d\u2019objets de valeur (or, etc.) domine toujours largement les \u00e9changes de marchandises. Les importations et les exportations de produits chimiques et pharmaceutiques ont connu de grandes fluctuations ces trois derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es sans toutefois qu\u2019un lien clair puisse \u00eatre \u00e9tabli avec le Brexit. Le commerce des autres marchandises est relativement stable et reste exc\u00e9dentaire\u00a0: les exportations suisses vers le Royaume-Uni d\u00e9pendent l\u00e0 davantage de la croissance \u00e9conomique du Royaume-Uni que du taux de change r\u00e9el bilat\u00e9ral.","magazine_issue":"20200401","seco_author_reccomended_post":null,"redaktoren":[4127,0],"korrektor":4139,"planned_publication_date":"20200324","original_files":null,"external_release_for_author":"20200326","external_release_for_author_time":"23:00:00","link_for_external_authors":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/exedit\/5e43ac8ed2191"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/133106"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4190"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=133106"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/133106\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":187682,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/133106\/revisions\/187682"}],"acf:user":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4139"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/0"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4127"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4190"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/main_focus_post\/156822"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/main_focus_post\/156023"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12519"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=133106"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post__type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post__type?post=133106"},{"taxonomy":"post_opinion","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_opinion?post=133106"},{"taxonomy":"post_serie","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_serie?post=133106"},{"taxonomy":"post_content_category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_content_category?post=133106"},{"taxonomy":"post_content_subject","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_content_subject?post=133106"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}