{"id":139001,"date":"2017-10-24T08:36:02","date_gmt":"2017-10-24T08:36:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/2017\/10\/nussbaumer-11-2017fr\/"},"modified":"2023-08-24T00:14:45","modified_gmt":"2023-08-23T22:14:45","slug":"nussbaumer-11-2017fr","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/2017\/10\/nussbaumer-11-2017fr\/","title":{"rendered":"Le franc, reflet de la force \u00e9conomique"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Avoir une monnaie forte n\u2019est pas nouveau pour la Suisse. Quiconque est n\u00e9 apr\u00e8s 1973 n\u2019a connu qu\u2019une appr\u00e9ciation constante du franc. Depuis la fin du syst\u00e8me de Bretton Woods, la valeur ext\u00e9rieure de la monnaie corrig\u00e9e de l\u2019inflation a augment\u00e9 de moiti\u00e9 (voir\u00a0<em>illustration\u00a01<\/em>). C\u2019est g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement bon signe, car une devise durablement forte n\u2019est pas le fruit du hasard. Des flux de capitaux \u00e0 court terme peuvent certes engendrer des fluctuations passag\u00e8res, mais une monnaie ne peut s\u2019appr\u00e9cier de mani\u00e8re constante et durable qu\u2019au sein d\u2019une \u00e9conomie florissante. C\u2019est \u00e9galement un avantage pour les habitants\u00a0: au cours des 45 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, le pouvoir d\u2019achat et donc la prosp\u00e9rit\u00e9 ont consid\u00e9rablement augment\u00e9.&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nToute m\u00e9daille a, toutefois, son revers. Ainsi, l\u2019appr\u00e9ciation du franc entrave constamment la comp\u00e9titivit\u00e9 des entreprises implant\u00e9es en Suisse, qui doivent rivaliser avec des concurrents toujours moins chers sur les march\u00e9s internationaux. \u00c0 partir de 2010 et jusqu\u2019\u00e0 l\u2019introduction du taux plancher, le franc s\u2019est appr\u00e9ci\u00e9 de pr\u00e8s de 25\u00a0% en valeur nominale, puis de 10\u00a0% apr\u00e8s la lev\u00e9e de ce m\u00eame taux plancher. De tels bonds ont constitu\u00e9 un v\u00e9ritable d\u00e9fi pour une \u00e9conomie suisse fortement internationalis\u00e9e et tributaire des exportations.&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n\u00c9tonnamment, celle-ci semble s\u2019en \u00eatre bien sortie pendant cette p\u00e9riode. Selon les derniers chiffres du Secr\u00e9tariat d\u2019\u00c9tat \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9conomie (Seco), le produit int\u00e9rieur brut (PIB) r\u00e9el a augment\u00e9 en moyenne de 1,7\u00a0% par an depuis 2010, alors que la croissance n\u2019\u00e9tait que de 1\u00a0% en 2012. Cette \u00e9volution surprend, du moins au regard des pr\u00e9visions conjoncturelles tr\u00e8s pessimistes \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9poque.&#13;<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"text__graphic-title\"><strong>Ill.\u00a01.\u00a0Cours du franc (indice, 1973-2016)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<div class='chart chart--normal' id='jaeggi_nussbaumer_fr_1'>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<script>\n$(function () {\n    $('#jaeggi_nussbaumer_fr_1').highcharts({\n \n       chart: {\n           type: 'line'\n        },\n        title: {\n            text: ''\n        },\n        \ncredits: {\n               \n                text:''\n              \n            },\nsubtitle: {\n            text: ''\n        },\n        xAxis: {\ntickInterval: 365 * 24 * 3600 * 1000,\n            type: 'datetime',\n            dateTimeLabelFormats: { \/\/ don't display the dummy year\n                \/\/month: '%e. %b',\n                year: '%Y'\n            },\n            title: {\n                text: ''\n            }\n        },\n        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[\n[Date.UTC(1973,0),42.3854],\n[Date.UTC(1973,3),43.9006],\n[Date.UTC(1973,6),44.4342],\n[Date.UTC(1973,9),43.3432],\n[Date.UTC(1974,0),45.0465],\n[Date.UTC(1974,3),46.3303],\n[Date.UTC(1974,6),47.0261],\n[Date.UTC(1974,9),50.1238],\n[Date.UTC(1975,0),52.3795],\n[Date.UTC(1975,3),51.6303],\n[Date.UTC(1975,6),52.054],\n[Date.UTC(1975,9),53.3934],\n[Date.UTC(1976,0),55.7709],\n[Date.UTC(1976,3),59.3518],\n[Date.UTC(1976,6),59.7864],\n[Date.UTC(1976,9),59.9541],\n[Date.UTC(1977,0),57.9746],\n[Date.UTC(1977,3),57.8948],\n[Date.UTC(1977,6),60.1759],\n[Date.UTC(1977,9),64.7191],\n[Date.UTC(1978,0),70.0504],\n[Date.UTC(1978,3),70.4436],\n[Date.UTC(1978,6),77.5798],\n[Date.UTC(1978,9),77.0722],\n[Date.UTC(1979,0),74.5646],\n[Date.UTC(1979,3),73.892],\n[Date.UTC(1979,6),74.6044],\n[Date.UTC(1979,9),74.8235],\n[Date.UTC(1980,0),73.0382],\n[Date.UTC(1980,3),72.8332],\n[Date.UTC(1980,6),73.6744],\n[Date.UTC(1980,9),73.2956],\n[Date.UTC(1981,0),71.4069],\n[Date.UTC(1981,3),72.3238],\n[Date.UTC(1981,6),74.9817],\n[Date.UTC(1981,9),82.3936],\n[Date.UTC(1982,0),83.8481],\n[Date.UTC(1982,3),81.1092],\n[Date.UTC(1982,6),80.3348],\n[Date.UTC(1982,9),81.0859],\n[Date.UTC(1983,0),84.5295],\n[Date.UTC(1983,3),84.8275],\n[Date.UTC(1983,6),86.2188],\n[Date.UTC(1983,9),87.1089],\n[Date.UTC(1984,0),86.5624],\n[Date.UTC(1984,3),85.1204],\n[Date.UTC(1984,6),83.3034],\n[Date.UTC(1984,9),84.0918],\n[Date.UTC(1985,0),81.3679],\n[Date.UTC(1985,3),82.3822],\n[Date.UTC(1985,6),85.4075],\n[Date.UTC(1985,9),87.0587],\n[Date.UTC(1986,0),87.4776],\n[Date.UTC(1986,3),89.4715],\n[Date.UTC(1986,6),94.0275],\n[Date.UTC(1986,9),93.6258],\n[Date.UTC(1987,0),94.2062],\n[Date.UTC(1987,3),95.5591],\n[Date.UTC(1987,6),94.9803],\n[Date.UTC(1987,9),96.9809],\n[Date.UTC(1988,0),97.1147],\n[Date.UTC(1988,3),95.0462],\n[Date.UTC(1988,6),93.0536],\n[Date.UTC(1988,9),93.0505],\n[Date.UTC(1989,0),90.7982],\n[Date.UTC(1989,3),88.2122],\n[Date.UTC(1989,6),90.064],\n[Date.UTC(1989,9),89.6546],\n[Date.UTC(1990,0),90.8053],\n[Date.UTC(1990,3),94.0466],\n[Date.UTC(1990,6),96.4603],\n[Date.UTC(1990,9),96.3957],\n[Date.UTC(1991,0),95.4886],\n[Date.UTC(1991,3),93.6816],\n[Date.UTC(1991,6),91.4933],\n[Date.UTC(1991,9),91.464],\n[Date.UTC(1992,0),89.8557],\n[Date.UTC(1992,3),88.0347],\n[Date.UTC(1992,6),92.5697],\n[Date.UTC(1992,9),94.0953],\n[Date.UTC(1993,0),91.778],\n[Date.UTC(1993,3),92.9284],\n[Date.UTC(1993,6),95.3565],\n[Date.UTC(1993,9),96.9695],\n[Date.UTC(1994,0),99.1837],\n[Date.UTC(1994,3),99.2655],\n[Date.UTC(1994,6),101.9426],\n[Date.UTC(1994,9),102.2926],\n[Date.UTC(1995,0),104.6588],\n[Date.UTC(1995,3),108.1692],\n[Date.UTC(1995,6),107.2463],\n[Date.UTC(1995,9),109.9763],\n[Date.UTC(1996,0),108.3641],\n[Date.UTC(1996,3),105.8396],\n[Date.UTC(1996,6),106.2092],\n[Date.UTC(1996,9),101.8756],\n[Date.UTC(1997,0),97.0141],\n[Date.UTC(1997,3),98.7023],\n[Date.UTC(1997,6),99.3286],\n[Date.UTC(1997,9),101.1827],\n[Date.UTC(1998,0),101.1259],\n[Date.UTC(1998,3),99.1969],\n[Date.UTC(1998,6),99.7724],\n[Date.UTC(1998,9),102.6927],\n[Date.UTC(1999,0),101.3213],\n[Date.UTC(1999,3),99.8436],\n[Date.UTC(1999,6),99.1596],\n[Date.UTC(1999,9),98.4297],\n[Date.UTC(2000,0),97.2173],\n[Date.UTC(2000,3),98.5059],\n[Date.UTC(2000,6),99.0822],\n[Date.UTC(2000,9),100],\n[Date.UTC(2001,0),101.8611],\n[Date.UTC(2001,3),100.888],\n[Date.UTC(2001,6),103.2774],\n[Date.UTC(2001,9),106.2152],\n[Date.UTC(2002,0),105.7855],\n[Date.UTC(2002,3),107.9255],\n[Date.UTC(2002,6),110.5329],\n[Date.UTC(2002,9),111.1396],\n[Date.UTC(2003,0),113.6658],\n[Date.UTC(2003,3),111.5376],\n[Date.UTC(2003,6),108.9559],\n[Date.UTC(2003,9),109.6858],\n[Date.UTC(2004,0),109.8719],\n[Date.UTC(2004,3),111.0075],\n[Date.UTC(2004,6),111.6304],\n[Date.UTC(2004,9),113.2393],\n[Date.UTC(2005,0),111.957],\n[Date.UTC(2005,3),111.0536],\n[Date.UTC(2005,6),109.3904],\n[Date.UTC(2005,9),109.2006],\n[Date.UTC(2006,0),108.4502],\n[Date.UTC(2006,3),109.5684],\n[Date.UTC(2006,6),109.1941],\n[Date.UTC(2006,9),108.1088],\n[Date.UTC(2007,0),106.8668],\n[Date.UTC(2007,3),105.2991],\n[Date.UTC(2007,6),105.548],\n[Date.UTC(2007,9),105.9302],\n[Date.UTC(2008,0),110.9434],\n[Date.UTC(2008,3),111.8253],\n[Date.UTC(2008,6),110.7404],\n[Date.UTC(2008,9),115.1192],\n[Date.UTC(2009,0),118.6928],\n[Date.UTC(2009,3),117.9477],\n[Date.UTC(2009,6),118.3269],\n[Date.UTC(2009,9),119.909],\n[Date.UTC(2010,0),120.5641],\n[Date.UTC(2010,3),121.3413],\n[Date.UTC(2010,6),128.3756],\n[Date.UTC(2010,9),130.9479],\n[Date.UTC(2011,0),134.5018],\n[Date.UTC(2011,3),140.4879],\n[Date.UTC(2011,6),150.1898],\n[Date.UTC(2011,9),141.2876],\n[Date.UTC(2012,0),141.405],\n[Date.UTC(2012,3),141.6004],\n[Date.UTC(2012,6),139.6511],\n[Date.UTC(2012,9),141.1873],\n[Date.UTC(2013,0),141.0668],\n[Date.UTC(2013,3),140.8113],\n[Date.UTC(2013,6),142.8817],\n[Date.UTC(2013,9),145.1085],\n[Date.UTC(2014,0),146.9557],\n[Date.UTC(2014,3),146.8492],\n[Date.UTC(2014,6),145.5051],\n[Date.UTC(2014,9),144.3654],\n[Date.UTC(2015,0),155.6026],\n[Date.UTC(2015,3),158.7181],\n[Date.UTC(2015,6),156.5086],\n[Date.UTC(2015,9),154.6703],\n[Date.UTC(2016,0),155.5867],\n[Date.UTC(2016,3),156.366],\n[Date.UTC(2016,6),157.4997],\n[Date.UTC(2016,9),158.0045],\n[Date.UTC(2017,0),158.6883],\n[Date.UTC(2017,3),158.2955]\n            ]\n        },\n\n\/\/------->\n Bei der Linie die weniger Werte hat, schreibt man statt einen Wert \u00abnull\u00bb. Es ist wichtig das man einen Monat eingibt (nach dem Jahr). Sonst geht es nicht  <-------\/\/\n{\n            name: 'Indice r\u00e9el',\n            \n            data: [\n [Date.UTC(1973,0),76.404],\n[Date.UTC(1973,3),78.6101],\n[Date.UTC(1973,6),79.3094],\n[Date.UTC(1973,9),78.9772],\n[Date.UTC(1974,0),80.9666],\n[Date.UTC(1974,3),81.1574],\n[Date.UTC(1974,6),82.2569],\n[Date.UTC(1974,9),87.5344],\n[Date.UTC(1975,0),90.2681],\n[Date.UTC(1975,3),87.4259],\n[Date.UTC(1975,6),86.9036],\n[Date.UTC(1975,9),88.0203],\n[Date.UTC(1976,0),90.1528],\n[Date.UTC(1976,3),93.3507],\n[Date.UTC(1976,6),92.9757],\n[Date.UTC(1976,9),91.3993],\n[Date.UTC(1977,0),86.5587],\n[Date.UTC(1977,3),84.4717],\n[Date.UTC(1977,6),86.9061],\n[Date.UTC(1977,9),92.3692],\n[Date.UTC(1978,0),98.6035],\n[Date.UTC(1978,3),97.6881],\n[Date.UTC(1978,6),106.2464],\n[Date.UTC(1978,9),103.9333],\n[Date.UTC(1979,0),99.94],\n[Date.UTC(1979,3),98.4013],\n[Date.UTC(1979,6),98.0518],\n[Date.UTC(1979,9),96.5726],\n[Date.UTC(1980,0),91.8763],\n[Date.UTC(1980,3),90.182],\n[Date.UTC(1980,6),90.5434],\n[Date.UTC(1980,9),88.8806],\n[Date.UTC(1981,0),86.2317],\n[Date.UTC(1981,3),86.2207],\n[Date.UTC(1981,6),89.4741],\n[Date.UTC(1981,9),96.8402],\n[Date.UTC(1982,0),97.4665],\n[Date.UTC(1982,3),94.1164],\n[Date.UTC(1982,6),93.6073],\n[Date.UTC(1982,9),93.9245],\n[Date.UTC(1983,0),96.546],\n[Date.UTC(1983,3),96.1076],\n[Date.UTC(1983,6),96.568],\n[Date.UTC(1983,9),97.056],\n[Date.UTC(1984,0),96.0467],\n[Date.UTC(1984,3),93.8807],\n[Date.UTC(1984,6),91.2877],\n[Date.UTC(1984,9),92.0298],\n[Date.UTC(1985,0),89.4198],\n[Date.UTC(1985,3),89.7342],\n[Date.UTC(1985,6),92.4598],\n[Date.UTC(1985,9),94.4583],\n[Date.UTC(1986,0),94.5804],\n[Date.UTC(1986,3),96.2354],\n[Date.UTC(1986,6),100.5636],\n[Date.UTC(1986,9),100.1645],\n[Date.UTC(1987,0),100.9892],\n[Date.UTC(1987,3),101.6696],\n[Date.UTC(1987,6),100.811],\n[Date.UTC(1987,9),103.0213],\n[Date.UTC(1988,0),103.3771],\n[Date.UTC(1988,3),100.635],\n[Date.UTC(1988,6),97.8578],\n[Date.UTC(1988,9),97.6852],\n[Date.UTC(1989,0),95.4626],\n[Date.UTC(1989,3),92.3424],\n[Date.UTC(1989,6),94.0056],\n[Date.UTC(1989,9),94.3843],\n[Date.UTC(1990,0),96.0816],\n[Date.UTC(1990,3),99.3698],\n[Date.UTC(1990,6),102.0658],\n[Date.UTC(1990,9),102.6565],\n[Date.UTC(1991,0),102.4686],\n[Date.UTC(1991,3),100.5674],\n[Date.UTC(1991,6),98.0724],\n[Date.UTC(1991,9),97.9732],\n[Date.UTC(1992,0),96.5582],\n[Date.UTC(1992,3),94.4605],\n[Date.UTC(1992,6),99.0655],\n[Date.UTC(1992,9),101.1571],\n[Date.UTC(1993,0),98.5882],\n[Date.UTC(1993,3),99.8039],\n[Date.UTC(1993,6),102.0503],\n[Date.UTC(1993,9),103.5441],\n[Date.UTC(1994,0),105.4356],\n[Date.UTC(1994,3),104.6345],\n[Date.UTC(1994,6),106.9873],\n[Date.UTC(1994,9),107.1395],\n[Date.UTC(1995,0),110.127],\n[Date.UTC(1995,3),113.3554],\n[Date.UTC(1995,6),112.2457],\n[Date.UTC(1995,9),114.8005],\n[Date.UTC(1996,0),112.765],\n[Date.UTC(1996,3),109.4047],\n[Date.UTC(1996,6),109.6623],\n[Date.UTC(1996,9),105.0649],\n[Date.UTC(1997,0),99.8127],\n[Date.UTC(1997,3),100.9678],\n[Date.UTC(1997,6),101.1132],\n[Date.UTC(1997,9),102.8009],\n[Date.UTC(1998,0),102.5864],\n[Date.UTC(1998,3),100.074],\n[Date.UTC(1998,6),100.5718],\n[Date.UTC(1998,9),103.2848],\n[Date.UTC(1999,0),102.1987],\n[Date.UTC(1999,3),100.2671],\n[Date.UTC(1999,6),99.7791],\n[Date.UTC(1999,9),99.0263],\n[Date.UTC(2000,0),98.2303],\n[Date.UTC(2000,3),99.033],\n[Date.UTC(2000,6),99.5478],\n[Date.UTC(2000,9),100],\n[Date.UTC(2001,0),101.3878],\n[Date.UTC(2001,3),99.6993],\n[Date.UTC(2001,6),101.8487],\n[Date.UTC(2001,9),103.9351],\n[Date.UTC(2002,0),103.1257],\n[Date.UTC(2002,3),104.9453],\n[Date.UTC(2002,6),106.9578],\n[Date.UTC(2002,9),107.1019],\n[Date.UTC(2003,0),109.0685],\n[Date.UTC(2003,3),106.5593],\n[Date.UTC(2003,6),103.6598],\n[Date.UTC(2003,9),104.0013],\n[Date.UTC(2004,0),103.6246],\n[Date.UTC(2004,3),104.4732],\n[Date.UTC(2004,6),104.6321],\n[Date.UTC(2004,9),106.1063],\n[Date.UTC(2005,0),104.4681],\n[Date.UTC(2005,3),103.1822],\n[Date.UTC(2005,6),101.1344],\n[Date.UTC(2005,9),100.8522],\n[Date.UTC(2006,0),100.0137],\n[Date.UTC(2006,3),100.4618],\n[Date.UTC(2006,6),99.7091],\n[Date.UTC(2006,9),98.1698],\n[Date.UTC(2007,0),96.3691],\n[Date.UTC(2007,3),94.7363],\n[Date.UTC(2007,6),94.5908],\n[Date.UTC(2007,9),94.5435],\n[Date.UTC(2008,0),98.6391],\n[Date.UTC(2008,3),99.0011],\n[Date.UTC(2008,6),97.6124],\n[Date.UTC(2008,9),101.3046],\n[Date.UTC(2009,0),103.6611],\n[Date.UTC(2009,3),102.7474],\n[Date.UTC(2009,6),102.8706],\n[Date.UTC(2009,9),104.0604],\n[Date.UTC(2010,0),104.3102],\n[Date.UTC(2010,3),104.4691],\n[Date.UTC(2010,6),109.6098],\n[Date.UTC(2010,9),111.2933],\n[Date.UTC(2011,0),113.6149],\n[Date.UTC(2011,3),117.4812],\n[Date.UTC(2011,6),124.2487],\n[Date.UTC(2011,9),115.6159],\n[Date.UTC(2012,0),114.8755],\n[Date.UTC(2012,3),114.108],\n[Date.UTC(2012,6),111.8618],\n[Date.UTC(2012,9),112.1192],\n[Date.UTC(2013,0),111.2949],\n[Date.UTC(2013,3),110.4561],\n[Date.UTC(2013,6),111.5818],\n[Date.UTC(2013,9),112.6629],\n[Date.UTC(2014,0),113.582],\n[Date.UTC(2014,3),112.8849],\n[Date.UTC(2014,6),111.4537],\n[Date.UTC(2014,9),110.253],\n[Date.UTC(2015,0),118.1139],\n[Date.UTC(2015,3),119.2547],\n[Date.UTC(2015,6),116.9348],\n[Date.UTC(2015,9),115.1699],\n[Date.UTC(2016,0),115.4898],\n[Date.UTC(2016,3),115.6693],\n[Date.UTC(2016,6),115.9341],\n[Date.UTC(2016,9),115.5811],\n[Date.UTC(2017,0),115.8508],\n[Date.UTC(2017,3),115.0277]\n            ]\n        }]\n\/\/------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\/\/\n\n    });\n\n \n});\n\n<\/script>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n<span class=\"text__quelle--ground\">Source\u00a0: BNS \/ La Vie \u00e9conomique<\/span>&#13;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Les rapports du Seco sur les structures \u00e9conomiques<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\nIl est \u00e9vident que l\u2019\u00e9volution au niveau agr\u00e9g\u00e9 ne refl\u00e8te pas sp\u00e9cifiquement celle des entreprises, des branches et des r\u00e9gions. Ces derni\u00e8res r\u00e9agissent diff\u00e9remment en fonction de leur degr\u00e9 d\u2019exposition au taux de change. C\u2019est ce que montrent six \u00e9tudes r\u00e9alis\u00e9es par le Seco pour sa s\u00e9rie \u00ab\u00a0Rapports sur les structures \u00e9conomiques\u00a0\u00bb (\u00ab\u00a0Struktuberichterstattung\u00a0\u00bb en allemand)<a href=\"#footnote_1\" id=\"footnote-anchor_1\" class=\"inline-footnote__anchor\">[1]<\/a>. En principe, une appr\u00e9ciation de la monnaie produit trois types d\u2019effet. Premi\u00e8rement, elle entra\u00eene une perte de comp\u00e9titivit\u00e9-prix \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9tranger. Deuxi\u00e8mement, elle accro\u00eet la concurrence \u00e0 laquelle se livrent les produits import\u00e9s et indig\u00e8nes sur le march\u00e9 int\u00e9rieur. Troisi\u00e8mement, les intrants et les biens d\u2019investissement trait\u00e9s ou utilis\u00e9s en Suisse baissent de prix.&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nLa fa\u00e7on dont le franc fort p\u00e8se sur une entreprise, une branche ou une r\u00e9gion d\u00e9pend de leur exposition \u00e0 ces trois effets. Le tourisme est ainsi relativement touch\u00e9. D\u2019une part, il est tr\u00e8s expos\u00e9 \u00e0 la concurrence \u00e9trang\u00e8re en mati\u00e8re de destination touristique et, d\u2019autre part, il ne profite gu\u00e8re des intrants \u00e9trangers.&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nCette diff\u00e9rence d\u2019impact se r\u00e9percute non seulement sur l\u2019\u00e9volution des exportations et de l\u2019emploi, mais \u00e9galement sur les investissements ou sur la recherche et le d\u00e9veloppement (R&amp;D). La s\u00e9rie de \u00ab\u00a0Rapports sur les structures \u00e9conomiques\u00a0\u00bb examine donc les questions suivantes\u00a0: dans quelle mesure l\u2019appr\u00e9ciation constante du franc a-t-elle contribu\u00e9 aux transformations structurelles de l\u2019\u00e9conomie suisse\u00a0? Dans quelle mesure les phases d\u2019appr\u00e9ciation de 2010 et 2011 ainsi qu\u2019apr\u00e8s la lev\u00e9e du taux plancher en janvier 2015 ont-elles acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9 le changement structurel\u00a0?&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nL\u2019appr\u00e9ciation du franc a-t-elle, par exemple, amplifi\u00e9 la tendance \u00e0 la concentration dans les exportations de marchandises\u00a0? Depuis les ann\u00e9es\u00a02000, les ventes de l\u2019industrie chimique et pharmaceutique \u00e0 l\u2019ext\u00e9rieur ont fortement progress\u00e9\u00a0: elles repr\u00e9sentaient 28\u00a0% des exportations en 2000 et 45\u00a0% en 2016 (voir\u00a0<em>illustration 2<\/em>). Au cours de la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode, la part des exportations de machines, d\u2019appareils, d\u2019\u00e9lectronique a r\u00e9gress\u00e9 \u00e0 15\u00a0%. Cette modification de la structure des exportations pourrait s\u2019expliquer par le fait que l\u2019industrie pharmaceutique est moins expos\u00e9e \u00e0 une revalorisation de la monnaie que le secteur des machines, des appareils et de l\u2019\u00e9lectronique.&#13;<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"text__graphic-title\"><strong>Ill. 2. Exportations suisses par groupes de marchandises (2000 et 2016)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<span class=\"text__quelle--ground\"><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/Nussbaumer_DEF_11_17_FR.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-73717\" src=\"http:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/Nussbaumer_DEF_11_17_FR.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1803\" height=\"1198\" \/><\/a>\u00a0<\/strong><\/span>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n<span class=\"text__quelle--ground\">Source\u00a0: Statistique du commerce ext\u00e9rieur de l\u2019AFD (exportation de marchandises sans l\u2019or) \/ La Vie \u00e9conomique<\/span>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nUne sp\u00e9cialisation dans les exportations de qualit\u00e9 sup\u00e9rieure pourrait aussi provenir de l\u2019appr\u00e9ciation du franc. Certes, la grande part d\u2019intrants permet de se pr\u00e9munir contre les variations de change. Toutefois, l\u2019am\u00e9lioration de la qualit\u00e9 des exportations ou une r\u00e9orientation vers des produits de grande qualit\u00e9 s\u2019adressant \u00e0 des clients moins sensibles aux prix peuvent expliquer l\u2019extraordinaire r\u00e9sistance des exportations en d\u00e9pit de la tendance \u00e0 l\u2019appr\u00e9ciation du franc.&#13;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Un march\u00e9 du travail robuste<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\nIl est particuli\u00e8rement int\u00e9ressant d\u2019\u00e9tudier les cons\u00e9quences sur l\u2019emploi\u00a0: la perte de comp\u00e9titivit\u00e9 a-t-elle pu \u00eatre compens\u00e9e par les avantages li\u00e9s \u00e0 des intrants moins chers\u00a0? C\u2019est ce que semble indiquer l\u2019\u00e9volution de l\u2019emploi au moins jusqu\u2019\u00e0 2015. Apr\u00e8s la lev\u00e9e du taux plancher, sa croissance s\u2019est fortement ralentie. Cela laisse \u00e0 penser qu\u2019une telle compensation est plus difficile lorsque l\u2019appr\u00e9ciation est tr\u00e8s rapide.&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nLes investissements des entreprises et leurs activit\u00e9s de R&amp;D sont d\u00e9terminants pour la croissance \u00e0 long terme de l\u2019\u00e9conomie. Dans ces domaines, il est difficile de pr\u00e9voir la r\u00e9action des entreprises face \u00e0 l\u2019appr\u00e9ciation du franc. D\u2019un c\u00f4t\u00e9, on pourrait s\u2019attendre \u00e0 ce qu\u2019elles diminuent leurs investissements ou investissent \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9tranger, si leurs marges se r\u00e9duisent et que leurs perspectives de croissance manquent de visibilit\u00e9. D\u2019un autre c\u00f4t\u00e9, il est aussi imaginable que les entreprises, face \u00e0 une sur\u00e9valuation de la monnaie, renforcent leurs activit\u00e9s de R&amp;D pour abaisser leurs co\u00fbts et ainsi compenser la baisse des marges.&#13;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>L\u2019\u0153uf ou la poule\u00a0?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\nComme mentionn\u00e9 en pr\u00e9ambule, l\u2019appr\u00e9ciation du franc en elle-m\u00eame est toujours un reflet de la r\u00e9ussite et de la force d\u2019une \u00e9conomie. Quelle est la cause et quel est l\u2019effet\u00a0? En d&#8217;autres termes, est-ce l\u2019appr\u00e9ciation du franc qui a entra\u00een\u00e9 une am\u00e9lioration de la qualit\u00e9 des exportations ou est-ce la r\u00e9ussite de l\u2019\u00e9conomie suisse, en raison de la grande qualit\u00e9 de ses exportations, qui a caus\u00e9 cette appr\u00e9ciation\u00a0? C\u2019est difficile \u00e0 dire. Enfin, il ne faut pas oublier que le cours du franc n\u2019est pas le seul param\u00e8tre susceptible d\u2019influencer les mutations structurelles \u00e0 long terme. Il convient \u00e9galement de prendre en consid\u00e9ration les cons\u00e9quences de l\u2019\u00e9volution technologique et de la mondialisation dans toute leur \u00e9tendue.&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nEn un mot comme en cent, si la Suisse continue de faire mieux que ses concurrents, une d\u00e9valuation \u00e0 long terme du franc serait surprenante. La politique \u00e9conomique devrait veiller \u00e0 ne pas trop interf\u00e9rer dans les transformations que conna\u00eet l\u2019\u00e9conomie, afin que celle-ci continue de prosp\u00e9rer durablement dans des structures adapt\u00e9es.<\/p>\n<ol class=\"footnote\"><li id=\"footnote_1\" class=\"footnote--item\">Le pr\u00e9sent num\u00e9ro est consacr\u00e9 \u00e0 ces \u00e9tudes qui sont disponibles sur le site du Seco, sous le titre g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de <a href=\"https:\/\/www.seco.admin.ch\/seco\/fr\/home\/Publikationen_Dienstleistungen\/Publikationen_und_Formulare\/Strukturwandel_Wachstum\/Strukturwandel.html\">\u00ab\u00a0Changement structurel\u00a0\u00bb<\/a> \u00e0 l\u2019adresse www.seco.admin.ch&nbsp;<a href=\"#footnote-anchor_1\" class=\"inline-footnote__anchor hidden-print\">[<span class=\"icon-arrow-up\"><\/span>]<\/a><\/li><\/ol>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Avoir une monnaie forte n\u2019est pas nouveau pour la Suisse. Quiconque est n\u00e9 apr\u00e8s 1973 n\u2019a connu qu\u2019une appr\u00e9ciation constante du franc. Depuis la fin du syst\u00e8me de Bretton Woods, la valeur ext\u00e9rieure de la monnaie corrig\u00e9e de l\u2019inflation a augment\u00e9 de moiti\u00e9 (voir\u00a0illustration\u00a01). C\u2019est g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement bon signe, car une devise durablement forte n\u2019est pas [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":3072,"featured_media":24416,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"post__type":[81,83],"post_opinion":[],"post_serie":[],"post_content_category":[],"post_content_subject":[],"acf":{"seco_author":3072,"seco_co_author":[4315,0],"author_override":"","seco_author_post_ocupation_year":"","seco_author_post_occupation_de":"Dr. rer. oec., Leiter Ressort Wachstum und Wettbewerbspolitik, Staatssekretariat f\u00fcr Wirtschaft (Seco), Bern","seco_author_post_occupation_fr":"Chef du secteur Croissance et politique de la concurrence, Secr\u00e9tariat d\u2019\u00c9tat \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9conomie (Seco), Berne","seco_co_authors_post_ocupation":[{"seco_co_author":4315,"seco_co_author_post_occupation_year":"","seco_co_author_post_occupation_de":"Wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter, Ressort Wachstum und Wettbewerbspolitik, Staatssekretariat f\u00fcr Wirtschaft (Seco), Bern","seco_co_author_post_occupation_fr":"Collaborateur scientifique, secteur Croissance et politique de la concurrence, Secr\u00e9tariat d\u2019\u00c9tat \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9conomie (Seco), Berne"}],"short_title":"Le franc, reflet de la force \u00e9conomique","post_lead":"L\u2019appr\u00e9ciation du franc refl\u00e8te la force de l\u2019\u00e9conomie suisse. Toutefois, les mutations structurelles qui l\u2019accompagnent sont douloureuses, surtout quand cette hausse est abrupte.","post_hero_image_description":"Le franc n'a fait que se renforcer depuis des d\u00e9cennies.","post_hero_image_description_copyright_de":"SNB","post_hero_image_description_copyright_fr":"","post_references_literature":"","post_kasten":null,"post_notes_for_print":"","first_teaser_header_de":"","first_teaser_header_fr":"","first_teaser_text_de":"","first_teaser_text_fr":"","second_teaser_header_de":"","second_teaser_header_fr":"","second_teaser_text_de":"","second_teaser_text_fr":"","kseason_de":"","kseason_fr":"","post_in_pdf":139004,"main_focus":[156311,157028],"serie_email":null,"frontpage_slider_bild":139008,"artikel_bild-slider":null,"legacy_id":"72597","post_abstract":"Depuis les ann\u00e9es septante, le cours r\u00e9el du franc n\u2019a cess\u00e9 de cro\u00eetre. Cette appr\u00e9ciation, qui exprime la force de l\u2019\u00e9conomie, a sensiblement augment\u00e9 le pouvoir d\u2019achat de la population. N\u00e9anmoins, pour bon nombre d\u2019entreprises suisses, une monnaie forte repr\u00e9sente un d\u00e9fi. Cela est particuli\u00e8rement vrai pour les phases d\u2019appr\u00e9ciation qui ont suivi la crise \u00e9conomique mondiale. Six \u00e9tudes, r\u00e9alis\u00e9es par le Secr\u00e9tariat d\u2019\u00c9tat \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9conomie (Seco) pour sa s\u00e9rie \u00ab\u00a0Rapport sur les structures \u00e9conomiques\u00a0\u00bb, en ont \u00e9tudi\u00e9 les cons\u00e9quences. Pourquoi les exportations suisses ont-elles r\u00e9sist\u00e9 aussi solidement\u00a0? L\u2019appr\u00e9ciation du franc a-t-elle am\u00e9lior\u00e9 la qualit\u00e9 des exportations ou entra\u00een\u00e9 leur concentration\u00a0? Quelles ont \u00e9t\u00e9 les cons\u00e9quences sur l\u2019emploi\u00a0? Comment l\u2019appr\u00e9ciation a-t-elle influenc\u00e9 les investissements et les activit\u00e9s de recherche et d\u00e9veloppement des entreprises\u00a0?","magazine_issue":"11-2017","seco_author_reccomended_post":null,"redaktoren":[4127,0],"korrektor":4139,"planned_publication_date":"20171025","original_files":[{"file":139016},{"file":139020}],"external_release_for_author":"20170929","external_release_for_author_time":"22:00:00","link_for_external_authors":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/exedit\/59b14a84e3305"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/139001"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3072"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=139001"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/139001\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":188157,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/139001\/revisions\/188157"}],"acf:user":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4139"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4127"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/0"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4315"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3072"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/main_focus_post\/157028"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/main_focus_post\/156311"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24416"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=139001"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post__type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post__type?post=139001"},{"taxonomy":"post_opinion","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_opinion?post=139001"},{"taxonomy":"post_serie","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_serie?post=139001"},{"taxonomy":"post_content_category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_content_category?post=139001"},{"taxonomy":"post_content_subject","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_content_subject?post=139001"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}