{"id":140149,"date":"2017-05-23T15:53:07","date_gmt":"2017-05-23T15:53:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/2017\/05\/funk-06-2016fr\/"},"modified":"2023-08-24T00:17:01","modified_gmt":"2023-08-23T22:17:01","slug":"funk-06-2016fr","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/2017\/05\/funk-06-2016fr\/","title":{"rendered":"Prix du logement et taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat&nbsp;: le lien se resserre de nouveau"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Depuis le d\u00e9but du XXI<sup>e<\/sup>\u00a0si\u00e8cle, les prix du march\u00e9 r\u00e9sidentiel suisse ont fortement augment\u00e9 (voir <em>illustration\u00a01<\/em>). Cette \u00e9volution ressemble de plus en plus \u00e0 la flamb\u00e9e des prix des ann\u00e9es\u00a0quatre-vingts, avec des augmentations annuelles allant jusqu\u2019\u00e0 10\u00a0%. L\u2019\u00e9clatement de la bulle immobili\u00e8re au d\u00e9but des ann\u00e9es\u00a0nonante avait alors mis fin \u00e0 cette envol\u00e9e. Les cons\u00e9quences ont \u00e9t\u00e9 rudes pour l\u2019\u00e9conomie suisse. Soucieuse d\u2019anticiper la formation d\u2019une nouvelle bulle sp\u00e9culative, la Banque nationale suisse observe actuellement avec attention l\u2019\u00e9volution du march\u00e9 immobilier.&#13;<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"text__graphic-title\"><strong>Ill.\u00a01 \u00c9volution des prix suisses de l\u2019immobilier (1982 \u2013 2013)<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<div class='chart chart--normal' id='drechsel_funk_fr1'>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<script>\n$(function () {\n    $('#drechsel_funk_fr1').highcharts({\nchart: {\n        type: 'spline'\n    },\n    title: {\n        text: ''\n    },\n  \n    xAxis: {\n        type: 'datetime',\n        dateTimeLabelFormats: { \/\/ don't display the dummy year\n            month: '%e. %b',\n    year:\"%Y\"\n        },\n        title: {\n            text: 'Date'\n        }\n    },\n    yAxis: {\n        title: {\n            text: 'Points d\u2018indice (1er trimestre 1982 = 100)'\n        },\n    },\n    tooltip: {\n        headerFormat: '<b>{series.name}<\/b><br>',\n        pointFormat: '{point.x:%e. %b.%Y}: {point.y:.2f}'\n    },\n\n    plotOptions: {\n        spline: {\n            marker: {\n                enabled: false\n            }\n        }\n    },\n\n    series: [{\n        name: 'Indice pond\u00e9r\u00e9',\n        \/\/ Define the data points. All series have a dummy year\n        \/\/ of 1970\/71 in order to be compared on the same x axis. Note\n        \/\/ that in JavaScript, months start at 0 for January, 1 for February etc.\n        data: [\n            [Date.UTC(1982,1),100],\n[Date.UTC(1982,3),100.34],\n[Date.UTC(1982,6),100.59],\n[Date.UTC(1982,9),102.27],\n[Date.UTC(1983,1),102.54],\n[Date.UTC(1983,3),104.16],\n[Date.UTC(1983,6),105.99],\n[Date.UTC(1983,9),108.17],\n[Date.UTC(1984,1),108.94],\n[Date.UTC(1984,3),111.4],\n[Date.UTC(1984,6),111.21],\n[Date.UTC(1984,9),112.66],\n[Date.UTC(1985,1),115.75],\n[Date.UTC(1985,3),115.9],\n[Date.UTC(1985,6),116.98],\n[Date.UTC(1985,9),118.29],\n[Date.UTC(1986,1),121.36],\n[Date.UTC(1986,3),120.79],\n[Date.UTC(1986,6),122.97],\n[Date.UTC(1986,9),124.56],\n[Date.UTC(1987,1),127.15],\n[Date.UTC(1987,3),130.27],\n[Date.UTC(1987,6),132.57],\n[Date.UTC(1987,9),136.2],\n[Date.UTC(1988,1),139.96],\n[Date.UTC(1988,3),145.49],\n[Date.UTC(1988,6),149.92],\n[Date.UTC(1988,9),156.57],\n[Date.UTC(1989,1),160.04],\n[Date.UTC(1989,3),163.71],\n[Date.UTC(1989,6),166.96],\n[Date.UTC(1989,9),171.76],\n[Date.UTC(1990,1),174.1],\n[Date.UTC(1990,3),176.19],\n[Date.UTC(1990,6),177.06],\n[Date.UTC(1990,9),176.21],\n[Date.UTC(1991,1),177.06],\n[Date.UTC(1991,3),179.62],\n[Date.UTC(1991,6),183.38],\n[Date.UTC(1991,9),181.27],\n[Date.UTC(1992,1),179.67],\n[Date.UTC(1992,3),177.71],\n[Date.UTC(1992,6),173.74],\n[Date.UTC(1992,9),171],\n[Date.UTC(1993,1),167.96],\n[Date.UTC(1993,3),167.09],\n[Date.UTC(1993,6),163.3],\n[Date.UTC(1993,9),161.87],\n[Date.UTC(1994,1),162.94],\n[Date.UTC(1994,3),161.51],\n[Date.UTC(1994,6),159.75],\n[Date.UTC(1994,9),157.79],\n[Date.UTC(1995,1),156.62],\n[Date.UTC(1995,3),155.4],\n[Date.UTC(1995,6),153.42],\n[Date.UTC(1995,9),150.69],\n[Date.UTC(1996,1),147.73],\n[Date.UTC(1996,3),146.84],\n[Date.UTC(1996,6),146.07],\n[Date.UTC(1996,9),142.3],\n[Date.UTC(1997,1),141.37],\n[Date.UTC(1997,3),139.3],\n[Date.UTC(1997,6),138.95],\n[Date.UTC(1997,9),137.38],\n[Date.UTC(1998,1),137.48],\n[Date.UTC(1998,3),136.45],\n[Date.UTC(1998,6),136.59],\n[Date.UTC(1998,9),135.91],\n[Date.UTC(1999,1),136.34],\n[Date.UTC(1999,3),135.67],\n[Date.UTC(1999,6),135.41],\n[Date.UTC(1999,9),135.8],\n[Date.UTC(2000,1),135.53],\n[Date.UTC(2000,3),136.53],\n[Date.UTC(2000,6),138.28],\n[Date.UTC(2000,9),138.21],\n[Date.UTC(2001,1),139.4],\n[Date.UTC(2001,3),140.27],\n[Date.UTC(2001,6),141.83],\n[Date.UTC(2001,9),142.63],\n[Date.UTC(2002,1),145.76],\n[Date.UTC(2002,3),147.48],\n[Date.UTC(2002,6),150.14],\n[Date.UTC(2002,9),152.25],\n[Date.UTC(2003,1),153.92],\n[Date.UTC(2003,3),154.98],\n[Date.UTC(2003,6),156.61],\n[Date.UTC(2003,9),156.19],\n[Date.UTC(2004,1),157.5],\n[Date.UTC(2004,3),159.41],\n[Date.UTC(2004,6),160.63],\n[Date.UTC(2004,9),160.82],\n[Date.UTC(2005,1),161.49],\n[Date.UTC(2005,3),162.35],\n[Date.UTC(2005,6),164.1],\n[Date.UTC(2005,9),164.51],\n[Date.UTC(2006,1),165.72],\n[Date.UTC(2006,3),166.12],\n[Date.UTC(2006,6),167],\n[Date.UTC(2006,9),168.15],\n[Date.UTC(2007,1),169.91],\n[Date.UTC(2007,3),169.87],\n[Date.UTC(2007,6),170.81],\n[Date.UTC(2007,9),172.17],\n[Date.UTC(2008,1),173.47],\n[Date.UTC(2008,3),176.12],\n[Date.UTC(2008,6),178.12],\n[Date.UTC(2008,9),179.83],\n[Date.UTC(2009,1),182.28],\n[Date.UTC(2009,3),185.04],\n[Date.UTC(2009,6),187.21],\n[Date.UTC(2009,9),190.04],\n[Date.UTC(2010,1),191.44],\n[Date.UTC(2010,3),192.73],\n[Date.UTC(2010,6),194.19],\n[Date.UTC(2010,9),197.32],\n[Date.UTC(2011,1),199],\n[Date.UTC(2011,3),200.44],\n[Date.UTC(2011,6),201.66],\n[Date.UTC(2011,9),206.37],\n[Date.UTC(2012,1),209.41],\n[Date.UTC(2012,3),207.66],\n[Date.UTC(2012,6),210.8],\n[Date.UTC(2012,9),213.25],\n[Date.UTC(2013,1),215.55],\n[Date.UTC(2013,3),217.32],\n[Date.UTC(2013,6),218.85],\n[Date.UTC(2013,9),220.43]\n        ]\n    }, {\n        name: 'Maisons familiales',\n        data: [\n            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       ]\n    }, {\n        name: 'Logements locatifs',\n        data: [\n           [Date.UTC(1982,1),100],\n[Date.UTC(1982,3),103.7],\n[Date.UTC(1982,6),102.48],\n[Date.UTC(1982,9),104.81],\n[Date.UTC(1983,1),105.03],\n[Date.UTC(1983,3),106.55],\n[Date.UTC(1983,6),105.71],\n[Date.UTC(1983,9),109.79],\n[Date.UTC(1984,1),108.25],\n[Date.UTC(1984,3),110.59],\n[Date.UTC(1984,6),109.94],\n[Date.UTC(1984,9),112.96],\n[Date.UTC(1985,1),114.55],\n[Date.UTC(1985,3),116.82],\n[Date.UTC(1985,6),115.32],\n[Date.UTC(1985,9),116.59],\n[Date.UTC(1986,1),116.2],\n[Date.UTC(1986,3),117.78],\n[Date.UTC(1986,6),118.48],\n[Date.UTC(1986,9),122.16],\n[Date.UTC(1987,1),121.44],\n[Date.UTC(1987,3),125.67],\n[Date.UTC(1987,6),127.19],\n[Date.UTC(1987,9),131.8],\n[Date.UTC(1988,1),131.92],\n[Date.UTC(1988,3),141.85],\n[Date.UTC(1988,6),141.23],\n[Date.UTC(1988,9),148.8],\n[Date.UTC(1989,1),148.02],\n[Date.UTC(1989,3),157.91],\n[Date.UTC(1989,6),163.76],\n[Date.UTC(1989,9),171.36],\n[Date.UTC(1990,1),178.69],\n[Date.UTC(1990,3),185.7],\n[Date.UTC(1990,6),193.81],\n[Date.UTC(1990,9),200.62],\n[Date.UTC(1991,1),206.06],\n[Date.UTC(1991,3),212.89],\n[Date.UTC(1991,6),216.06],\n[Date.UTC(1991,9),220.49],\n[Date.UTC(1992,1),219.95],\n[Date.UTC(1992,3),219.09],\n[Date.UTC(1992,6),215.61],\n[Date.UTC(1992,9),210.7],\n[Date.UTC(1993,1),205.31],\n[Date.UTC(1993,3),200.47],\n[Date.UTC(1993,6),194.46],\n[Date.UTC(1993,9),187.9],\n[Date.UTC(1994,1),185.11],\n[Date.UTC(1994,3),181.3],\n[Date.UTC(1994,6),176.58],\n[Date.UTC(1994,9),175.66],\n[Date.UTC(1995,1),173.62],\n[Date.UTC(1995,3),171.21],\n[Date.UTC(1995,6),167.78],\n[Date.UTC(1995,9),164.79],\n[Date.UTC(1996,1),159.11],\n[Date.UTC(1996,3),157.11],\n[Date.UTC(1996,6),155.06],\n[Date.UTC(1996,9),152.26],\n[Date.UTC(1997,1),151],\n[Date.UTC(1997,3),147.76],\n[Date.UTC(1997,6),145.91],\n[Date.UTC(1997,9),144.06],\n[Date.UTC(1998,1),143.28],\n[Date.UTC(1998,3),141.64],\n[Date.UTC(1998,6),140.25],\n[Date.UTC(1998,9),139.51],\n[Date.UTC(1999,1),139.04],\n[Date.UTC(1999,3),137.96],\n[Date.UTC(1999,6),137.29],\n[Date.UTC(1999,9),137.63],\n[Date.UTC(2000,1),137.66],\n[Date.UTC(2000,3),137.58],\n[Date.UTC(2000,6),138.65],\n[Date.UTC(2000,9),139.53],\n[Date.UTC(2001,1),140.32],\n[Date.UTC(2001,3),140.42],\n[Date.UTC(2001,6),141.03],\n[Date.UTC(2001,9),141.88],\n[Date.UTC(2002,1),143.32],\n[Date.UTC(2002,3),144.73],\n[Date.UTC(2002,6),146.94],\n[Date.UTC(2002,9),148.6],\n[Date.UTC(2003,1),149.36],\n[Date.UTC(2003,3),149.68],\n[Date.UTC(2003,6),151.14],\n[Date.UTC(2003,9),152.17],\n[Date.UTC(2004,1),153.71],\n[Date.UTC(2004,3),154.88],\n[Date.UTC(2004,6),156.21],\n[Date.UTC(2004,9),158.12],\n[Date.UTC(2005,1),159.61],\n[Date.UTC(2005,3),160.95],\n[Date.UTC(2005,6),162.28],\n[Date.UTC(2005,9),163.69],\n[Date.UTC(2006,1),164.99],\n[Date.UTC(2006,3),166.39],\n[Date.UTC(2006,6),166.99],\n[Date.UTC(2006,9),169.15],\n[Date.UTC(2007,1),169.77],\n[Date.UTC(2007,3),170.11],\n[Date.UTC(2007,6),171.64],\n[Date.UTC(2007,9),173.16],\n[Date.UTC(2008,1),174.82],\n[Date.UTC(2008,3),176.88],\n[Date.UTC(2008,6),179.59],\n[Date.UTC(2008,9),182.21],\n[Date.UTC(2009,1),181.76],\n[Date.UTC(2009,3),183.95],\n[Date.UTC(2009,6),185.47],\n[Date.UTC(2009,9),187.65],\n[Date.UTC(2010,1),187.72],\n[Date.UTC(2010,3),187.2],\n[Date.UTC(2010,6),187.33],\n[Date.UTC(2010,9),189.45],\n[Date.UTC(2011,1),190.43],\n[Date.UTC(2011,3),191.5],\n[Date.UTC(2011,6),193.68],\n[Date.UTC(2011,9),197.35],\n[Date.UTC(2012,1),198.31],\n[Date.UTC(2012,3),198.25],\n[Date.UTC(2012,6),199.13],\n[Date.UTC(2012,9),201.04],\n[Date.UTC(2013,1),202.45],\n[Date.UTC(2013,3),204.39],\n[Date.UTC(2013,6),205.6],\n[Date.UTC(2013,9),207.39]\n        ]\n    },{\n        name: 'Logements en propri\u00e9t\u00e9',\n        data: [\n            [Date.UTC(1982,1),100],\n[Date.UTC(1982,3),100.34],\n[Date.UTC(1982,6),101.33],\n[Date.UTC(1982,9),102.76],\n[Date.UTC(1983,1),102.53],\n[Date.UTC(1983,3),104.99],\n[Date.UTC(1983,6),107.41],\n[Date.UTC(1983,9),109.59],\n[Date.UTC(1984,1),110.49],\n[Date.UTC(1984,3),113.91],\n[Date.UTC(1984,6),113.46],\n[Date.UTC(1984,9),115.83],\n[Date.UTC(1985,1),117.68],\n[Date.UTC(1985,3),118.35],\n[Date.UTC(1985,6),120.28],\n[Date.UTC(1985,9),122.18],\n[Date.UTC(1986,1),124.81],\n[Date.UTC(1986,3),124.58],\n[Date.UTC(1986,6),127.26],\n[Date.UTC(1986,9),127.64],\n[Date.UTC(1987,1),132.54],\n[Date.UTC(1987,3),134.83],\n[Date.UTC(1987,6),137.42],\n[Date.UTC(1987,9),143.06],\n[Date.UTC(1988,1),145.31],\n[Date.UTC(1988,3),148.62],\n[Date.UTC(1988,6),156.26],\n[Date.UTC(1988,9),157],\n[Date.UTC(1989,1),165.16],\n[Date.UTC(1989,3),163.91],\n[Date.UTC(1989,6),167.26],\n[Date.UTC(1989,9),171.61],\n[Date.UTC(1990,1),174.15],\n[Date.UTC(1990,3),178.66],\n[Date.UTC(1990,6),175.97],\n[Date.UTC(1990,9),171.8],\n[Date.UTC(1991,1),172.09],\n[Date.UTC(1991,3),172.93],\n[Date.UTC(1991,6),177.16],\n[Date.UTC(1991,9),172.56],\n[Date.UTC(1992,1),171.73],\n[Date.UTC(1992,3),167.03],\n[Date.UTC(1992,6),164.87],\n[Date.UTC(1992,9),162.07],\n[Date.UTC(1993,1),159.2],\n[Date.UTC(1993,3),159.73],\n[Date.UTC(1993,6),159.37],\n[Date.UTC(1993,9),159.75],\n[Date.UTC(1994,1),161.27],\n[Date.UTC(1994,3),159.52],\n[Date.UTC(1994,6),158.65],\n[Date.UTC(1994,9),156.8],\n[Date.UTC(1995,1),156.05],\n[Date.UTC(1995,3),155.5],\n[Date.UTC(1995,6),154.36],\n[Date.UTC(1995,9),151.97],\n[Date.UTC(1996,1),150.7],\n[Date.UTC(1996,3),150.34],\n[Date.UTC(1996,6),149.48],\n[Date.UTC(1996,9),145.07],\n[Date.UTC(1997,1),144.7],\n[Date.UTC(1997,3),142.02],\n[Date.UTC(1997,6),141.71],\n[Date.UTC(1997,9),140.07],\n[Date.UTC(1998,1),140.34],\n[Date.UTC(1998,3),139.07],\n[Date.UTC(1998,6),140.82],\n[Date.UTC(1998,9),140.68],\n[Date.UTC(1999,1),141.01],\n[Date.UTC(1999,3),139.9],\n[Date.UTC(1999,6),140.09],\n[Date.UTC(1999,9),140.61],\n[Date.UTC(2000,1),140.72],\n[Date.UTC(2000,3),141.32],\n[Date.UTC(2000,6),144.34],\n[Date.UTC(2000,9),143.63],\n[Date.UTC(2001,1),146.11],\n[Date.UTC(2001,3),147.03],\n[Date.UTC(2001,6),150.58],\n[Date.UTC(2001,9),150.86],\n[Date.UTC(2002,1),155.1],\n[Date.UTC(2002,3),158.37],\n[Date.UTC(2002,6),162.55],\n[Date.UTC(2002,9),164.61],\n[Date.UTC(2003,1),168.27],\n[Date.UTC(2003,3),170.06],\n[Date.UTC(2003,6),172.25],\n[Date.UTC(2003,9),170.41],\n[Date.UTC(2004,1),171.31],\n[Date.UTC(2004,3),175.55],\n[Date.UTC(2004,6),176.27],\n[Date.UTC(2004,9),175.02],\n[Date.UTC(2005,1),175.9],\n[Date.UTC(2005,3),178.21],\n[Date.UTC(2005,6),180.28],\n[Date.UTC(2005,9),179.22],\n[Date.UTC(2006,1),180.03],\n[Date.UTC(2006,3),179.1],\n[Date.UTC(2006,6),181.89],\n[Date.UTC(2006,9),182.57],\n[Date.UTC(2007,1),184.17],\n[Date.UTC(2007,3),184.46],\n[Date.UTC(2007,6),185.39],\n[Date.UTC(2007,9),187.61],\n[Date.UTC(2008,1),189.61],\n[Date.UTC(2008,3),192.47],\n[Date.UTC(2008,6),193.77],\n[Date.UTC(2008,9),196.15],\n[Date.UTC(2009,1),200.19],\n[Date.UTC(2009,3),204.3],\n[Date.UTC(2009,6),207.41],\n[Date.UTC(2009,9),209.68],\n[Date.UTC(2010,1),212.61],\n[Date.UTC(2010,3),215.06],\n[Date.UTC(2010,6),216.3],\n[Date.UTC(2010,9),220.61],\n[Date.UTC(2011,1),223.4],\n[Date.UTC(2011,3),224.71],\n[Date.UTC(2011,6),225.43],\n[Date.UTC(2011,9),232.75],\n[Date.UTC(2012,1),237.57],\n[Date.UTC(2012,3),233.77],\n[Date.UTC(2012,6),239.6],\n[Date.UTC(2012,9),241.89],\n[Date.UTC(2013,1),244.37],\n[Date.UTC(2013,3),245.19],\n[Date.UTC(2013,6),247.22],\n[Date.UTC(2013,9),247.95]\n        ]\n    }]\n});\n \n});\n\n\n\n<\/script>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n<span class=\"text__quelle--ground\">Source\u00a0: W\u00fcest Partner \/ La Vie \u00e9conomique<\/span>&#13;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Mutations du march\u00e9 immobilier<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\nCes quarante derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, des mutations structurelles ont marqu\u00e9 de leur empreinte l\u2019\u00e9volution des prix du logement en Suisse. Ainsi, apr\u00e8s la mise en place du r\u00e9gime de pr\u00e9voyance professionnelle obligatoire en 1985, les caisses de pension ont investi des sommes importantes. Cela a fortement stimul\u00e9 les prix des cat\u00e9gories d\u2019actifs et de l\u2019immobilier. Contraints par la faiblesse des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e0 rechercher des rendements int\u00e9ressants, les investisseurs institutionnels s\u2019int\u00e9ressent de nouveau au march\u00e9 immobilier, ce qui peut faire flamber les prix, en particulier ceux des immeubles collectifs.&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nPar ailleurs, la croissance d\u00e9mographique \u2013 g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9e notamment par l\u2019adoption de l\u2019Accord sur la libre circulation des personnes<a href=\"#footnote_1\" id=\"footnote-anchor_1\" class=\"inline-footnote__anchor\">[1]<\/a> \u2013 et la mise en \u0153uvre de l\u2019initiative contre l\u2019immigration de masse exercent une influence sur la demande et, par cons\u00e9quent, sur les prix du logement.&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nAutre facteur \u00e0 prendre en consid\u00e9ration, les taux hypoth\u00e9caires et les normes r\u00e9gissant l\u2019octroi de cr\u00e9dits ont fortement \u00e9volu\u00e9. Dans les ann\u00e9es\u00a0quatre-vingts, la plupart des hypoth\u00e8ques \u00e9taient assorties d\u2019un taux variable, ce qui mettait de nombreux emprunteurs et banques cantonales en mauvaise posture lorsque les taux augmentaient. Depuis la crise de l\u2019immobilier qui a s\u00e9vi en Suisse au d\u00e9but des ann\u00e9es\u00a0nonante, l\u2019adoption de r\u00e8gles sur les fonds propres (B\u00e2le I et II notamment), de syst\u00e8mes de gestion des risques et, r\u00e9cemment, de syst\u00e8mes d\u2019autor\u00e9gulation bancaire a boulevers\u00e9 la politique d\u2019octroi de cr\u00e9dits.&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nCes \u00e9l\u00e9ments peuvent modifier \u00e0 terme la corr\u00e9lation entre les prix immobiliers et leurs divers facteurs. Autre param\u00e8tre\u00a0: les diff\u00e9rences r\u00e9gionales qui peuvent, par exemple, s\u2019expliquer par les lois sur l\u2019am\u00e9nagement du territoire. Parfois tr\u00e8s marqu\u00e9es, elles exercent un effet particulier sur l\u2019offre, ce qui explique certaines divergences dans le prix de l\u2019immobilier.&#13;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>L\u2019offre et la demande, les principaux facteurs<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\nDans un contexte de forte hausse des prix immobiliers, il est particuli\u00e8rement important de savoir si cette \u00e9volution s\u2019explique par des facteurs fondamentaux, comme l\u2019offre et la demande de logements, ou si elle r\u00e9sulte de la surchauffe du march\u00e9. Il faut aussi compter sur le fait que les interactions entre les facteurs fondamentaux et les prix de l\u2019immobilier peuvent \u00e9voluer au fil du temps et varier fortement selon les r\u00e9gions.&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nPour r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 ces questions, des chercheurs du KOF, le centre de recherches conjoncturelles de l\u2019EPF Zurich, ont analys\u00e9 l\u2019influence qu\u2019exercent depuis 1983 l\u2019offre et la demande de logements, les taux hypoth\u00e9caires et la conjoncture sur les prix du march\u00e9 r\u00e9sidentiel<a href=\"#footnote_2\" id=\"footnote-anchor_2\" class=\"inline-footnote__anchor\">[2]<\/a>. Ils ont mis l\u2019accent sur l\u2019\u00e9volution des corr\u00e9lations entre les facteurs, sur les diff\u00e9rences entre le march\u00e9 des maisons et celui des logements ainsi que sur les effets r\u00e9gionaux (voir <em>encadr\u00e9<\/em>).&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nCette \u00e9tude montre que les prix immobiliers r\u00e9agissent comme pr\u00e9vu aux variations des facteurs fondamentaux. Lorsque, par exemple, la croissance d\u00e9mographique (demande) est inf\u00e9rieure \u00e0 l\u2019augmentation du parc immobilier (offre), les prix r\u00e9gressent. La d\u00e9t\u00e9rioration de l\u2019environnement \u00e9conomique, mesur\u00e9e d\u2019apr\u00e8s le produit int\u00e9rieur brut (PIB), fait aussi baisser les prix. En revanche, la diminution des taux hypoth\u00e9caires entra\u00eene une hausse. Le jeu de l\u2019offre et de la demande explique pratiquement la moiti\u00e9 de la variation des prix immobiliers, tandis que les taux hypoth\u00e9caires n\u2019en sont responsables qu\u2019\u00e0 raison de 20\u00a0%. L\u2019environnement \u00e9conomique a l\u2019influence la plus faible\u00a0(5\u00a0%).&#13;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat retrouvent leur influence sur les prix<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\nAu fil du temps, les prix immobiliers ont r\u00e9agi de fa\u00e7on relativement constante aux mouvements de l\u2019offre et de la demande, m\u00eame si les chocs attribuables \u00e0 l\u2019un ou l\u2019autre de ces facteurs ont eu des effets plus durables dans les ann\u00e9es\u00a0quatre-vingts que lors de la d\u00e9cennie suivante. Quant aux variations des taux hypoth\u00e9caires, elles ont davantage influ\u00e9 sur les prix suisses de l\u2019immobilier durant la premi\u00e8re p\u00e9riode qu\u2019apr\u00e8s l\u2019\u00e9clatement de la crise de l\u2019immobilier durant la seconde. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, la conjoncture a un effet plus durable depuis le d\u00e9but des ann\u00e9es\u00a0nonante que durant les ann\u00e9es\u00a0quatre-vingts.&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nIl semble que l\u2019effet des facteurs sur les prix immobiliers se soit modifi\u00e9 avec la crise des ann\u00e9es\u00a0nonante et qu\u2019il se soit ensuite stabilis\u00e9. Comme le montre l\u2019\u00e9tude, l\u2019\u00e9lasticit\u00e9 des prix des appartements en propri\u00e9t\u00e9 par rapport \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9volution des taux hypoth\u00e9caires a aussi diminu\u00e9 apr\u00e8s l\u2019\u00e9clatement de la bulle sp\u00e9culative (voir <em>illustration\u00a02<\/em>), m\u00eame si elle augmente \u00e0 nouveau depuis 2002. Cette observation a toute son importance devant le regain d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat des investisseurs institutionnels pour les immeubles collectifs compos\u00e9s d\u2019appartements en propri\u00e9t\u00e9 et devant la faiblesse g\u00e9n\u00e9rale des taux. En effet, l\u2019\u00e9lasticit\u00e9 des prix des logements en propri\u00e9t\u00e9 par rapport aux baisses des taux hypoth\u00e9caires est actuellement plus forte qu\u2019avant 2002.&#13;<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"text__graphic-title\"><strong>Ill.\u00a02. Effet des taux hypoth\u00e9caires sur les prix des logements en propri\u00e9t\u00e9<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n<div class='chart chart--normal' id='drechsel_funk_fr2'>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<script>\n$(function () {\n    $('#drechsel_funk_fr2').highcharts({\nchart: {\n        type: 'spline'\n    },\n    title: {\n        text: ''\n    },\n  \n    xAxis: {\n        type: 'datetime',\n        dateTimeLabelFormats: { \/\/ don't display the dummy year\n            month: '%e. %b',\n    year:\"%Y\"\n        },\n        title: {\n            text: ''\n        }\n    },\n    yAxis: {\n        title: {\n            text: 'Croissance r\u00e9elle des prix pour les logements en propri\u00e9t\u00e9 (en %)'\n        },\n    },\n    tooltip: {\n        headerFormat: '<b>{series.name}<\/b><br>',\n        pointFormat: '{point.x:%e. %b.%Y}: {point.y:.2f}'\n    },\n\n    plotOptions: {\n        spline: {\n            marker: {\n                enabled: false\n            }\n        }\n    },\n\n    series: [{\n        name: 'Marge d\u2019erreur statistique',\n        color: '#88c0d3',\n        \/\/ Define the data points. 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[Date.UTC(1983,1),0.91],\n[Date.UTC(1983,3),0.88],\n[Date.UTC(1983,6),0.86],\n[Date.UTC(1983,9),0.84],\n[Date.UTC(1984,1),0.83],\n[Date.UTC(1984,3),0.81],\n[Date.UTC(1984,6),0.79],\n[Date.UTC(1984,9),0.78],\n[Date.UTC(1985,1),0.78],\n[Date.UTC(1985,3),0.77],\n[Date.UTC(1985,6),0.77],\n[Date.UTC(1985,9),0.76],\n[Date.UTC(1986,1),0.76],\n[Date.UTC(1986,3),0.75],\n[Date.UTC(1986,6),0.75],\n[Date.UTC(1986,9),0.75],\n[Date.UTC(1987,1),0.75],\n[Date.UTC(1987,3),0.75],\n[Date.UTC(1987,6),0.76],\n[Date.UTC(1987,9),0.76],\n[Date.UTC(1988,1),0.75],\n[Date.UTC(1988,3),0.75],\n[Date.UTC(1988,6),0.76],\n[Date.UTC(1988,9),0.77],\n[Date.UTC(1989,1),0.77],\n[Date.UTC(1989,3),0.77],\n[Date.UTC(1989,6),0.77],\n[Date.UTC(1989,9),0.77],\n[Date.UTC(1990,1),0.79],\n[Date.UTC(1990,3),0.79],\n[Date.UTC(1990,6),0.8],\n[Date.UTC(1990,9),0.8],\n[Date.UTC(1991,1),0.8],\n[Date.UTC(1991,3),0.79],\n[Date.UTC(1991,6),0.76],\n[Date.UTC(1991,9),0.74],\n[Date.UTC(1992,1),0.74],\n[Date.UTC(1992,3),0.72],\n[Date.UTC(1992,6),0.73],\n[Date.UTC(1992,9),0.73],\n[Date.UTC(1993,1),0.72],\n[Date.UTC(1993,3),0.72],\n[Date.UTC(1993,6),0.7],\n[Date.UTC(1993,9),0.68],\n[Date.UTC(1994,1),0.65],\n[Date.UTC(1994,3),0.64],\n[Date.UTC(1994,6),0.63],\n[Date.UTC(1994,9),0.62],\n[Date.UTC(1995,1),0.6],\n[Date.UTC(1995,3),0.59],\n[Date.UTC(1995,6),0.59],\n[Date.UTC(1995,9),0.57],\n[Date.UTC(1996,1),0.56],\n[Date.UTC(1996,3),0.57],\n[Date.UTC(1996,6),0.56],\n[Date.UTC(1996,9),0.56],\n[Date.UTC(1997,1),0.55],\n[Date.UTC(1997,3),0.55],\n[Date.UTC(1997,6),0.54],\n[Date.UTC(1997,9),0.53],\n[Date.UTC(1998,1),0.54],\n[Date.UTC(1998,3),0.54],\n[Date.UTC(1998,6),0.53],\n[Date.UTC(1998,9),0.52],\n[Date.UTC(1999,1),0.53],\n[Date.UTC(1999,3),0.52],\n[Date.UTC(1999,6),0.52],\n[Date.UTC(1999,9),0.52],\n[Date.UTC(2000,1),0.5],\n[Date.UTC(2000,3),0.49],\n[Date.UTC(2000,6),0.48],\n[Date.UTC(2000,9),0.49],\n[Date.UTC(2001,1),0.49],\n[Date.UTC(2001,3),0.48],\n[Date.UTC(2001,6),0.48],\n[Date.UTC(2001,9),0.48],\n[Date.UTC(2002,1),0.48],\n[Date.UTC(2002,3),0.47],\n[Date.UTC(2002,6),0.48],\n[Date.UTC(2002,9),0.48],\n[Date.UTC(2003,1),0.49],\n[Date.UTC(2003,3),0.5],\n[Date.UTC(2003,6),0.5],\n[Date.UTC(2003,9),0.5],\n[Date.UTC(2004,1),0.49],\n[Date.UTC(2004,3),0.48],\n[Date.UTC(2004,6),0.48],\n[Date.UTC(2004,9),0.48],\n[Date.UTC(2005,1),0.48],\n[Date.UTC(2005,3),0.48],\n[Date.UTC(2005,6),0.49],\n[Date.UTC(2005,9),0.5],\n[Date.UTC(2006,1),0.49],\n[Date.UTC(2006,3),0.49],\n[Date.UTC(2006,6),0.5],\n[Date.UTC(2006,9),0.51],\n[Date.UTC(2007,1),0.51],\n[Date.UTC(2007,3),0.51],\n[Date.UTC(2007,6),0.53],\n[Date.UTC(2007,9),0.53],\n[Date.UTC(2008,1),0.55],\n[Date.UTC(2008,3),0.56],\n[Date.UTC(2008,6),0.57],\n[Date.UTC(2008,9),0.57],\n[Date.UTC(2009,1),0.58],\n[Date.UTC(2009,3),0.58],\n[Date.UTC(2009,6),0.57],\n[Date.UTC(2009,9),0.56],\n[Date.UTC(2010,1),0.56],\n[Date.UTC(2010,3),0.56],\n[Date.UTC(2010,6),0.55],\n[Date.UTC(2010,9),0.53],\n[Date.UTC(2011,1),0.52],\n[Date.UTC(2011,3),0.53],\n[Date.UTC(2011,6),0.51],\n[Date.UTC(2011,9),0.5],\n[Date.UTC(2012,1),0.48],\n[Date.UTC(2012,3),0.49],\n[Date.UTC(2012,6),0.49],\n[Date.UTC(2012,9),0.48],\n[Date.UTC(2013,1),0.46],\n[Date.UTC(2013,3),0.46]\n        ]\n    }, {\n        name: 'M\u00e9diane',\n                color: '#23318a',\n\n\n        data: [\n           [Date.UTC(1983,1),1],\n[Date.UTC(1983,3),1.01],\n[Date.UTC(1983,6),1.02],\n[Date.UTC(1983,9),1.02],\n[Date.UTC(1984,1),1.01],\n[Date.UTC(1984,3),1.01],\n[Date.UTC(1984,6),1.01],\n[Date.UTC(1984,9),1.01],\n[Date.UTC(1985,1),1.01],\n[Date.UTC(1985,3),1.01],\n[Date.UTC(1985,6),1.01],\n[Date.UTC(1985,9),1.01],\n[Date.UTC(1986,1),1.01],\n[Date.UTC(1986,3),1.01],\n[Date.UTC(1986,6),1.02],\n[Date.UTC(1986,9),1.02],\n[Date.UTC(1987,1),1.02],\n[Date.UTC(1987,3),1.02],\n[Date.UTC(1987,6),1.03],\n[Date.UTC(1987,9),1.03],\n[Date.UTC(1988,1),1.03],\n[Date.UTC(1988,3),1.03],\n[Date.UTC(1988,6),1.04],\n[Date.UTC(1988,9),1.03],\n[Date.UTC(1989,1),1.03],\n[Date.UTC(1989,3),1.04],\n[Date.UTC(1989,6),1.04],\n[Date.UTC(1989,9),1.04],\n[Date.UTC(1990,1),1.04],\n[Date.UTC(1990,3),1.06],\n[Date.UTC(1990,6),1.07],\n[Date.UTC(1990,9),1.08],\n[Date.UTC(1991,1),1.08],\n[Date.UTC(1991,3),1.06],\n[Date.UTC(1991,6),1.06],\n[Date.UTC(1991,9),1.04],\n[Date.UTC(1992,1),1.03],\n[Date.UTC(1992,3),1.03],\n[Date.UTC(1992,6),1.03],\n[Date.UTC(1992,9),1.02],\n[Date.UTC(1993,1),1.01],\n[Date.UTC(1993,3),0.99],\n[Date.UTC(1993,6),0.98],\n[Date.UTC(1993,9),0.97],\n[Date.UTC(1994,1),0.96],\n[Date.UTC(1994,3),0.95],\n[Date.UTC(1994,6),0.95],\n[Date.UTC(1994,9),0.93],\n[Date.UTC(1995,1),0.93],\n[Date.UTC(1995,3),0.91],\n[Date.UTC(1995,6),0.92],\n[Date.UTC(1995,9),0.92],\n[Date.UTC(1996,1),0.92],\n[Date.UTC(1996,3),0.91],\n[Date.UTC(1996,6),0.91],\n[Date.UTC(1996,9),0.9],\n[Date.UTC(1997,1),0.9],\n[Date.UTC(1997,3),0.91],\n[Date.UTC(1997,6),0.91],\n[Date.UTC(1997,9),0.9],\n[Date.UTC(1998,1),0.89],\n[Date.UTC(1998,3),0.89],\n[Date.UTC(1998,6),0.89],\n[Date.UTC(1998,9),0.88],\n[Date.UTC(1999,1),0.88],\n[Date.UTC(1999,3),0.87],\n[Date.UTC(1999,6),0.87],\n[Date.UTC(1999,9),0.87],\n[Date.UTC(2000,1),0.86],\n[Date.UTC(2000,3),0.86],\n[Date.UTC(2000,6),0.85],\n[Date.UTC(2000,9),0.84],\n[Date.UTC(2001,1),0.84],\n[Date.UTC(2001,3),0.84],\n[Date.UTC(2001,6),0.83],\n[Date.UTC(2001,9),0.83],\n[Date.UTC(2002,1),0.83],\n[Date.UTC(2002,3),0.84],\n[Date.UTC(2002,6),0.84],\n[Date.UTC(2002,9),0.84],\n[Date.UTC(2003,1),0.83],\n[Date.UTC(2003,3),0.84],\n[Date.UTC(2003,6),0.85],\n[Date.UTC(2003,9),0.86],\n[Date.UTC(2004,1),0.87],\n[Date.UTC(2004,3),0.87],\n[Date.UTC(2004,6),0.87],\n[Date.UTC(2004,9),0.88],\n[Date.UTC(2005,1),0.87],\n[Date.UTC(2005,3),0.89],\n[Date.UTC(2005,6),0.9],\n[Date.UTC(2005,9),0.9],\n[Date.UTC(2006,1),0.9],\n[Date.UTC(2006,3),0.91],\n[Date.UTC(2006,6),0.92],\n[Date.UTC(2006,9),0.92],\n[Date.UTC(2007,1),0.93],\n[Date.UTC(2007,3),0.93],\n[Date.UTC(2007,6),0.95],\n[Date.UTC(2007,9),0.95],\n[Date.UTC(2008,1),0.96],\n[Date.UTC(2008,3),0.96],\n[Date.UTC(2008,6),0.96],\n[Date.UTC(2008,9),0.97],\n[Date.UTC(2009,1),0.96],\n[Date.UTC(2009,3),0.98],\n[Date.UTC(2009,6),0.99],\n[Date.UTC(2009,9),0.99],\n[Date.UTC(2010,1),0.98],\n[Date.UTC(2010,3),0.98],\n[Date.UTC(2010,6),0.97],\n[Date.UTC(2010,9),0.98],\n[Date.UTC(2011,1),0.97],\n[Date.UTC(2011,3),0.97],\n[Date.UTC(2011,6),0.97],\n[Date.UTC(2011,9),0.97],\n[Date.UTC(2012,1),0.98],\n[Date.UTC(2012,3),0.97],\n[Date.UTC(2012,6),0.97],\n[Date.UTC(2012,9),0.98],\n[Date.UTC(2013,1),0.97],\n[Date.UTC(2013,3),0.98]\n        ]\n    }, {\n        name: 'Marge d\u2019erreur',\n                color: '#88c0d3',\n                showInLegend: false,\n\n\n        data: [\n         [Date.UTC(1983,1),1.11],\n[Date.UTC(1983,3),1.16],\n[Date.UTC(1983,6),1.19],\n[Date.UTC(1983,9),1.2],\n[Date.UTC(1984,1),1.22],\n[Date.UTC(1984,3),1.24],\n[Date.UTC(1984,6),1.26],\n[Date.UTC(1984,9),1.27],\n[Date.UTC(1985,1),1.3],\n[Date.UTC(1985,3),1.29],\n[Date.UTC(1985,6),1.3],\n[Date.UTC(1985,9),1.32],\n[Date.UTC(1986,1),1.31],\n[Date.UTC(1986,3),1.33],\n[Date.UTC(1986,6),1.33],\n[Date.UTC(1986,9),1.33],\n[Date.UTC(1987,1),1.33],\n[Date.UTC(1987,3),1.34],\n[Date.UTC(1987,6),1.34],\n[Date.UTC(1987,9),1.33],\n[Date.UTC(1988,1),1.33],\n[Date.UTC(1988,3),1.33],\n[Date.UTC(1988,6),1.33],\n[Date.UTC(1988,9),1.32],\n[Date.UTC(1989,1),1.32],\n[Date.UTC(1989,3),1.33],\n[Date.UTC(1989,6),1.31],\n[Date.UTC(1989,9),1.32],\n[Date.UTC(1990,1),1.34],\n[Date.UTC(1990,3),1.35],\n[Date.UTC(1990,6),1.37],\n[Date.UTC(1990,9),1.39],\n[Date.UTC(1991,1),1.4],\n[Date.UTC(1991,3),1.39],\n[Date.UTC(1991,6),1.38],\n[Date.UTC(1991,9),1.38],\n[Date.UTC(1992,1),1.37],\n[Date.UTC(1992,3),1.37],\n[Date.UTC(1992,6),1.37],\n[Date.UTC(1992,9),1.36],\n[Date.UTC(1993,1),1.36],\n[Date.UTC(1993,3),1.35],\n[Date.UTC(1993,6),1.32],\n[Date.UTC(1993,9),1.3],\n[Date.UTC(1994,1),1.3],\n[Date.UTC(1994,3),1.28],\n[Date.UTC(1994,6),1.28],\n[Date.UTC(1994,9),1.26],\n[Date.UTC(1995,1),1.27],\n[Date.UTC(1995,3),1.27],\n[Date.UTC(1995,6),1.27],\n[Date.UTC(1995,9),1.26],\n[Date.UTC(1996,1),1.26],\n[Date.UTC(1996,3),1.28],\n[Date.UTC(1996,6),1.27],\n[Date.UTC(1996,9),1.28],\n[Date.UTC(1997,1),1.28],\n[Date.UTC(1997,3),1.28],\n[Date.UTC(1997,6),1.28],\n[Date.UTC(1997,9),1.26],\n[Date.UTC(1998,1),1.25],\n[Date.UTC(1998,3),1.24],\n[Date.UTC(1998,6),1.23],\n[Date.UTC(1998,9),1.24],\n[Date.UTC(1999,1),1.23],\n[Date.UTC(1999,3),1.22],\n[Date.UTC(1999,6),1.21],\n[Date.UTC(1999,9),1.21],\n[Date.UTC(2000,1),1.22],\n[Date.UTC(2000,3),1.2],\n[Date.UTC(2000,6),1.21],\n[Date.UTC(2000,9),1.2],\n[Date.UTC(2001,1),1.2],\n[Date.UTC(2001,3),1.2],\n[Date.UTC(2001,6),1.2],\n[Date.UTC(2001,9),1.2],\n[Date.UTC(2002,1),1.21],\n[Date.UTC(2002,3),1.2],\n[Date.UTC(2002,6),1.2],\n[Date.UTC(2002,9),1.2],\n[Date.UTC(2003,1),1.2],\n[Date.UTC(2003,3),1.21],\n[Date.UTC(2003,6),1.23],\n[Date.UTC(2003,9),1.23],\n[Date.UTC(2004,1),1.24],\n[Date.UTC(2004,3),1.26],\n[Date.UTC(2004,6),1.26],\n[Date.UTC(2004,9),1.27],\n[Date.UTC(2005,1),1.28],\n[Date.UTC(2005,3),1.28],\n[Date.UTC(2005,6),1.29],\n[Date.UTC(2005,9),1.31],\n[Date.UTC(2006,1),1.32],\n[Date.UTC(2006,3),1.34],\n[Date.UTC(2006,6),1.34],\n[Date.UTC(2006,9),1.34],\n[Date.UTC(2007,1),1.33],\n[Date.UTC(2007,3),1.36],\n[Date.UTC(2007,6),1.35],\n[Date.UTC(2007,9),1.37],\n[Date.UTC(2008,1),1.36],\n[Date.UTC(2008,3),1.37],\n[Date.UTC(2008,6),1.39],\n[Date.UTC(2008,9),1.4],\n[Date.UTC(2009,1),1.4],\n[Date.UTC(2009,3),1.41],\n[Date.UTC(2009,6),1.43],\n[Date.UTC(2009,9),1.44],\n[Date.UTC(2010,1),1.45],\n[Date.UTC(2010,3),1.46],\n[Date.UTC(2010,6),1.46],\n[Date.UTC(2010,9),1.46],\n[Date.UTC(2011,1),1.48],\n[Date.UTC(2011,3),1.5],\n[Date.UTC(2011,6),1.5],\n[Date.UTC(2011,9),1.52],\n[Date.UTC(2012,1),1.51],\n[Date.UTC(2012,3),1.52],\n[Date.UTC(2012,6),1.53],\n[Date.UTC(2012,9),1.54],\n[Date.UTC(2013,1),1.55],\n[Date.UTC(2013,3),1.55]\n        ]\n    }]\n});\n \n});\n\n\n\n<\/script>\n&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n<span class=\"text__legend\">Remarque\u00a0: l\u2019illustration montre l\u2019\u00e9volution du profil de r\u00e9action. Elle mesure l\u2019effet sur les prix r\u00e9els des logements en propri\u00e9t\u00e9 cinq trimestres apr\u00e8s un choc n\u00e9gatif concernant les taux hypoth\u00e9caires. La ligne bleu fonc\u00e9 repr\u00e9sente la m\u00e9diane, tandis que la zone repr\u00e9sent\u00e9e en bleu clair indique l\u2019\u00e9cart-type.<\/span>&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\n<span class=\"text__quelle--ground\">Source\u00a0: Drechsel et Funk \/ La Vie \u00e9conomique<\/span>&#13;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>De grandes diff\u00e9rences r\u00e9gionales<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\nCes quinze derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, l\u2019\u00e9volution des prix de l\u2019immobilier a \u00e9t\u00e9 tr\u00e8s in\u00e9gale dans les grandes r\u00e9gions de notre pays. C\u2019est en Suisse centrale, en Suisse m\u00e9ridionale, dans le Bassin l\u00e9manique et \u00e0 Zurich que la hausse a \u00e9t\u00e9 la plus forte, tandis qu\u2019elle est rest\u00e9e mod\u00e9r\u00e9e en Suisse du Nord-Ouest et \u00e0 Berne. Par ailleurs, le Bassin l\u00e9manique est la seule r\u00e9gion dans laquelle la croissance d\u00e9mographique a \u00e9t\u00e9 sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 l\u2019extension du parc immobilier.&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nL\u2019\u00e9tude montre que les prix de l\u2019immobilier r\u00e9agissent diff\u00e9remment aux divers facteurs selon le lieu. Ainsi, dans la r\u00e9gion zurichoise, les effets du taux hypoth\u00e9caire et du taux de ch\u00f4mage sont dans la moyenne suisse, mais l\u2019offre et la demande y ont une influence plus grande qu\u2019ailleurs. Il en va autrement dans le Bassin l\u00e9manique, o\u00f9 les prix sont particuli\u00e8rement sensibles aux variations des taux ainsi qu\u2019\u00e0 l\u2019offre et \u00e0 la demande de logements.&#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nCe sont donc l\u2019offre et la demande qui influencent le plus les prix de l\u2019immobilier. Il n\u2019en reste pas moins que les interactions entre offre, demande, taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat, conjoncture et prix de l\u2019immobilier \u00e9voluent avec le temps. Comme le montre l\u2019\u00e9tude, l\u2019\u00e9lasticit\u00e9 des prix des logements en propri\u00e9t\u00e9 par rapport aux variations des taux hypoth\u00e9caires est actuellement sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 ce qu\u2019elle \u00e9tait il y a quinze ans. Les grandes diff\u00e9rences qui existent entre les politiques adopt\u00e9es et mises en \u0153uvre au niveau r\u00e9gional jouent aussi un r\u00f4le. C\u2019est, en particulier, le cas dans la situation actuelle o\u00f9 la faiblesse des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat se conjugue \u00e0 la hausse des prix de l\u2019immobilier. Par ailleurs, le durcissement des conditions d\u2019octroi des hypoth\u00e8ques en vigueur depuis 2012, comme l\u2019obligation d\u2019amortir, le principe de la valeur la plus basse et les r\u00e8gles sur les fonds propres, se traduit par une augmentation des int\u00e9r\u00eats effectivement acquitt\u00e9s par les m\u00e9nages. Signalons enfin que la mise en \u0153uvre de l\u2019initiative contre l\u2019immigration de masse et la d\u00e9t\u00e9rioration de la situation sur le march\u00e9 de l\u2019emploi pourraient freiner la croissance d\u00e9mographique ces prochaines ann\u00e9es. Ces conclusions sont particuli\u00e8rement importantes pour les responsables politiques qui observent l\u2019\u00e9volution du march\u00e9 immobilier.<\/p>\n<ol class=\"footnote\"><li id=\"footnote_1\" class=\"footnote--item\">Signature en 1999, d\u00e9but de l\u2019application en 2002 et lib\u00e9ralisation totale en 2007.&nbsp;<a href=\"#footnote-anchor_1\" class=\"inline-footnote__anchor hidden-print\">[<span class=\"icon-arrow-up\"><\/span>]<\/a><\/li><li id=\"footnote_2\" class=\"footnote--item\">Drechsel Dirk et Funk Anne Kathrin, <em>Time-Varying and Regional Dynamics in Swiss Housing Markets<\/em>, Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics<em>,<\/em> 2017.&nbsp;<a href=\"#footnote-anchor_2\" class=\"inline-footnote__anchor hidden-print\">[<span class=\"icon-arrow-up\"><\/span>]<\/a><\/li><\/ol>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Depuis le d\u00e9but du XXIe\u00a0si\u00e8cle, les prix du march\u00e9 r\u00e9sidentiel suisse ont fortement augment\u00e9 (voir illustration\u00a01). Cette \u00e9volution ressemble de plus en plus \u00e0 la flamb\u00e9e des prix des ann\u00e9es\u00a0quatre-vingts, avec des augmentations annuelles allant jusqu\u2019\u00e0 10\u00a0%. L\u2019\u00e9clatement de la bulle immobili\u00e8re au d\u00e9but des ann\u00e9es\u00a0nonante avait alors mis fin \u00e0 cette envol\u00e9e. Les cons\u00e9quences [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":4530,"featured_media":25694,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"post__type":[83],"post_opinion":[],"post_serie":[],"post_content_category":[229],"post_content_subject":[231],"acf":{"seco_author":4530,"seco_co_author":[3884,0],"author_override":"","seco_author_post_ocupation_year":"","seco_author_post_occupation_de":"Wissenschaftliche Mitarbeiterin, KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle ETH Z\u00fcrich und Doktorandin am Graduate Institute, Genf","seco_author_post_occupation_fr":"Collaboratrice scientifique, Centre de recherches conjoncturelles (KOF) de l\u2019EPF Zurich et doctorante \u00e0 l\u2019Institut de hautes \u00e9tudes internationales et du d\u00e9veloppement de Gen\u00e8ve","seco_co_authors_post_ocupation":[{"seco_co_author":3884,"seco_co_author_post_occupation_year":"","seco_co_author_post_occupation_de":"Dr. oec., Forschungsmitglied, KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle ETH Z\u00fcrich","seco_co_author_post_occupation_fr":"Membre de l\u2019\u00e9quipe de recherche, Centre de recherches conjoncturelles (KOF) de l\u2019EPF Zurich"}],"short_title":"Prix du logement et taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat","post_lead":"Si, selon une \u00e9tude du KOF, les prix immobiliers restent principalement tributaires de l\u2019offre et de la demande, ils n\u2019en sont pas moins stimul\u00e9s par la faiblesse actuelle des taux hypoth\u00e9caires. Ce ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne est particuli\u00e8rement marqu\u00e9 pour les appartements en propri\u00e9t\u00e9.","post_hero_image_description":"\u00c0 Zurich, la hausse de la demande en logements est confront\u00e9e \u00e0 la faiblesse de l'offre. Les prix immobiliers sont donc tir\u00e9s vers le haut. Les int\u00e9ress\u00e9s n'en font pas moins la queue pour visiter les nouveaux quartiers d'habitation.","post_hero_image_description_copyright_de":"Keystone","post_hero_image_description_copyright_fr":"","post_references_literature":"","post_kasten":[{"kasten_title":"Donn\u00e9es et m\u00e9thode","kasten_box":"L\u2019analyse se fonde sur l\u2019\u00e9cart entre l\u2019offre et la demande de logements, les taux hypoth\u00e9caires, le PIB et les prix de l\u2019immobilier de 1983 \u00e0 2013. Les donn\u00e9es sur l\u2019\u00e9cart entre l\u2019offre et la demande proviennent des publications de l\u2019Office f\u00e9d\u00e9ral de la statistique, qui d\u00e9finit cette valeur comme la diff\u00e9rence entre la croissance d\u00e9mographique et l\u2019augmentation du parc immobilier. Le taux hypoth\u00e9caire, fourni par la Banque nationale suisse, \u00e9quivaut \u00e0 la m\u00e9diane du taux de variation des nouvelles hypoth\u00e8ques \u00e0 taux variable par rapport \u00e0 la m\u00eame date de l\u2019ann\u00e9e ant\u00e9rieure. Quant \u00e0 la variation trimestrielle du PIB, elle est publi\u00e9e par le Secr\u00e9tariat d\u2019\u00c9tat \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9conomie (Seco). Les taux de variation des prix de l\u2019immobilier apr\u00e8s d\u00e9duction des prix \u00e0 la consommation sont tir\u00e9s de l\u2019indice des prix de l\u2019offre calcul\u00e9 par l\u2019entreprise de conseil W\u00fcest Partner. La pond\u00e9ration de l\u2019indice des prix de l\u2019immobilier est la suivante\u00a0: 37,5\u00a0% de maisons individuelles, 37,5\u00a0% de logements en propri\u00e9t\u00e9 et 25\u00a0% de logements lou\u00e9s. L\u2019analyse des effets r\u00e9gionaux se fonde sur les grandes r\u00e9gions de Suisse. Elle tient compte du taux de ch\u00f4mage au lieu du PIB et se limite \u00e0 la p\u00e9riode qui va de 1997 \u00e0 2003.&#13;\n&#13;\nL\u2019\u00e9tude utilise un mod\u00e8le vectoriel autor\u00e9gressif bay\u00e9sien variable dans le temps. Celui-ci permet, contrairement \u00e0 un mod\u00e8le autor\u00e9gressif vectoriel classique, de savoir si les interactions entre les variables \u00e9voluent avec le temps. L\u2019identification des chocs se fait \u00e0 l\u2019aide d\u2019une d\u00e9composition de Cholesky, les variables \u00e9tant analys\u00e9es dans l\u2019ordre d\u00e9crit ci-dessus. L\u2019analyse r\u00e9gionale a \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9alis\u00e9e en recourant \u00e0 un mod\u00e8le autor\u00e9gressif vectoriel bay\u00e9sien par grande r\u00e9gion."},{"kasten_title":"De la recherche \u00e0 la politique","kasten_box":"<em>La Vie \u00e9conomique<\/em> et la <em>Revue suisse d'\u00e9conomie et de statistique<\/em> facilitent le transfert de savoir entre la recherche et la politique. Les \u00e9tudes qui ont un rapport \u00e9troit avec la politique \u00e9conomique de notre pays sont publi\u00e9es sous une forme abr\u00e9g\u00e9e dans <em>La Vie \u00e9conomique<\/em>."}],"post_notes_for_print":"","first_teaser_header_de":"","first_teaser_header_fr":"","first_teaser_text_de":"","first_teaser_text_fr":"","second_teaser_header_de":"","second_teaser_header_fr":"","second_teaser_text_de":"","second_teaser_text_fr":"","kseason_de":"","kseason_fr":"","post_in_pdf":140152,"main_focus":null,"serie_email":null,"frontpage_slider_bild":140156,"artikel_bild-slider":null,"legacy_id":"67863","post_abstract":"En Suisse, les prix immobiliers augmentent fortement depuis le d\u00e9but du XXIe si\u00e8cle. Une \u00e9tude du KOF, le centre de recherches conjoncturelles de l\u2019EPFZ, a analys\u00e9 la fa\u00e7on dont ils sont influenc\u00e9s par le taux hypoth\u00e9caire, l\u2019environnement \u00e9conomique ainsi que la variation de l\u2019offre et de la demande de logements. Ce dernier facteur explique \u00e0 lui seul la moiti\u00e9 des mouvements. L\u2019influence du taux hypoth\u00e9caire a diminu\u00e9 apr\u00e8s la crise de l\u2019immobilier dans les ann\u00e9es nonante, pour ensuite se stabiliser. \u00c0 partir de 2002, elle s\u2019est fortement accrue. S\u2019agissant des r\u00e9gions, ce sont en particulier le Bassin l\u00e9manique et Zurich qui s\u2019\u00e9cartent de la moyenne suisse.","magazine_issue":"06-2017","seco_author_reccomended_post":null,"redaktoren":[3988,0],"korrektor":4139,"planned_publication_date":"20170524","original_files":[{"file":140164},{"file":140168},{"file":140172}],"external_release_for_author":"20170505","external_release_for_author_time":"12:00:00","link_for_external_authors":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/exedit\/58c292f60c049"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/140149"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4530"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=140149"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/140149\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":188230,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/140149\/revisions\/188230"}],"acf:user":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4139"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3988"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/0"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3884"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4530"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25694"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=140149"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post__type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post__type?post=140149"},{"taxonomy":"post_opinion","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_opinion?post=140149"},{"taxonomy":"post_serie","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_serie?post=140149"},{"taxonomy":"post_content_category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_content_category?post=140149"},{"taxonomy":"post_content_subject","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dievolkswirtschaft.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_content_subject?post=140149"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}